The new episode of SpecialEurasia Geopolitical Report Podcast delves into the intricate web of Armenia’s evolving relationship with NATO and the United States. With a focus on Yerevan’s strategic shift and its potential impact on the South Caucasus region, the podcast provides listeners with an in-depth analysis of the geopolitical ramifications of Armenia’s closer ties with Western military powers.
Armenia has started consultations with the United States to overhaul its armed forces, aligning them with North Atlantic Alliance standards. The Armenian Ministry of Defence has confirmed receiving advisory assistance from the U.S. and other Western nations to expedite this transition.
These reforms, which include both short-term and long-term support, are a critical part of Armenia’s defence strategy. While specifics remain under wraps, U.S. officials have provided the clarifications, highlighting a growing military collaboration between Armenia and its Western partners.
The shift towards NATO and the U.S. in Armenia’s defence orientation might alter the geopolitical dynamics of the South Caucasus. A key question arises: will Armenia forsake the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) in favour of NATO and U.S. military support in the face of external threats? Armenia’s CSTO membership has long been a cornerstone of Moscow’s military and foreign policy in the region. Since Nikol Pashinyan’s ascent to power in 2018 following the ‘colour revolution,’ Armenia has gradually distanced itself from Russia, signalling a potential realignment in its international alliances.
During SpecialEurasia’s official visit to Yerevan and discussions with Armenian government officials, we understood local public opinion is sharply divided. Some Armenians support the government’s stance, criticising Russia for its perceived abandonment of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh. Others, however, blame Pashinyan’s administration for relinquishing Nagorno-Karabakh and failing to adequately counter the Azerbaijani threat. This division highlights the complex interplay of national sentiment and geopolitical strategy that Armenia must navigate.
The potential risks for Armenia are underscored by its precarious position vis-à-vis Turkey and Azerbaijan. Turkey’s unwavering support for Azerbaijan and its status as a NATO member present a dilemma for Armenia. In the event of Azerbaijani aggression, there is a legitimate concern that Washington and NATO might refrain from intervening on Yerevan’s behalf, leaving Armenia vulnerable to coordinated Azeri-Turkish military actions. This scenario underscores the strategic uncertainties Armenia faces as it seeks to bolster its defence capabilities through Western partnerships.
By exploring Armenia’s strategic choices and their broader implications, the podcast offers a comprehensive understanding of how Yerevan’s closer ties with NATO and the U.S. might reshape the regional security landscape.
If you are interested in reports and consulting about Armenia and the South Caucasus, contact us at info@specialeurasia.com and book a call.
