Threat Assessment of Post-Assad Syria’s Impact on Central Asia

This report synthesises international and local data, together with previous SpecialEurasia assessments, to analyse the consequences of Assad’s downfall in Syria and the potential contribution of Central Asian foreign fighters.
Assessing Tehran-Bishkek’s Trade Via Iran’s Southern Ports

Recent agreements to develop a Eurasian logistics hub in Iran’s southern ports underscore Bishkek’s need for maritime access, while Tehran positions itself as a regional economic hub to mitigate sanctions and increase its influence in Central Asia.
Analysis of Over Four Decades of Terrorist Attacks in Iran and Their Impact on the Iranian Society

This report aims to analyse the evolution of terrorism in Iran, highlighting its peak in the 1980s with over 17,000 fatalities and its subsequent decline because of improved security measures, citizen cooperation, and post-war reconstruction efforts.
Islamic State Narrative on Recent Events in Syria: Analysis of al-Naba Issue 473

The Islamic State has utilised the recent collapse of the Assad regime and the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to intensify its ideological campaign. Through its latest issue of al-Naba (issue 473), released in recent days, the group has disseminated a narrative portraying these events as betrayals of Islamic principles and evidence of external…
Iran-Armenia Relations: Strategic Partnership Amid Regional Transformations

This analysis examines how recent regional developments, particularly in security cooperation and economic partnerships, have reshaped Iran-Armenia’s relations amid growing regional challenges.
Syria: Assad’s Fall, Iran and Russia’s “Strategic and Military” Defeat, and HTS Victory

The Assad regime’s sudden collapse in Syria marks a profound and far-reaching geopolitical shift. The rapid Syrian opposition military gains, spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have significantly altered regional political and military conditions.
Intel Brief: Syrian Conflict and the Escalation around Homs, Daraa, and As-Suwayda

This intel brief, based on local and international sources and SpecialEurasia’s previous monitoring reports, examines the regional and Syrian dynamics, integrating recent developments in Daraa and As-Suwayda to analyse the risks and strategic considerations.
Syrian Rebels’ Offensive Against Aleppo and the Potential Death of HTS Leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani

This report assesses the implications of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) offensive in Aleppo, the potential death of its leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani, and the broader geopolitical impact on regional stability and key state actors.
Iran-Afghanistan Relations: Emerging Dynamics and Challenges

The dynamics of Iran-Afghanistan relations have shifted significantly since the Taliban regained power in Afghanistan in 2021. Although Iran has refrained from formally recognising the Taliban government, it has engaged pragmatically, establishing cooperative frameworks for trade, transit, and other bilateral engagements.
Kuwait and Tajikistan: A Developing Partnership in Security and Economic Affairs

This report analyses the recent diplomatic developments and economic cooperation initiatives between Tajikistan and Kuwait following President Emomali Rahmon’s official visit to Kuwait from November 3rd-5th, 2024.
Iran-Japan Relations: Potential Cooperation Amidst Regional Challenges

This report provides an analytical review of the developing relationship between Iran and Japan, focusing on areas of mutual interest and the strategic and diplomatic challenges that may affect this cooperation. The analysis also highlights complexities arising from Japan’s alignment with the United States and ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
The Organisation of Turkic States and Ankara’s Geopolitical Ambitions in Central Asia

The recent 13th meeting of the Ministers of Economy and Trade of the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS) in Bishkek underscored Turkey’s growing role in Central Asia. This report analyses how Ankara’s ambitions are reshaping the geopolitical landscape of Central Asia, with direct consequences for Moscow and Beijing.
Iran’s Expanding Trade with the Eurasian Economic Union

This report primarily aims to evaluate the growth of trade between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), particularly focusing on non-oil exports.
Azerbaijan: Increasing Saudi Investments Might Boost Economic Diversification

The recent Azerbaijani-Saudi business forum underlined Baku’s attempt to diversify its economy and Riyadh’s desire to increasing its investment and economic presence in Azerbaijan and, therefore, in the South Caucasus region.
First Anniversary of Hamas Attack Against Israel on October 7th, 2023: An Intelligence Report

This report analyses at the situation one year after the Hamas attacks on Israel, which occurred on October 7th, 2023. The report highlights the continuous risks in the area, such as the role of Hezbollah, Iran’s engagement, and the emergence of terrorist organisations like the Islamic State.

Category: Middle East