Kavkaz Files ISSN 2975-0474 Volume 31 Issue 1
SpecialEurasia OSINT Unit

Armenia’s strategic partnership with the United States and Yerevan’s close economic ties to Brussels threaten the Russian influence in the Caucasian republic and pose questions about the Armenian membership inside the Eurasian Economic Union.

This report assesses Yerevan’s foreign policy toward Washington and Brussels, and Moscow’s potential responses, considering Russia’s diminishing influence in the Caucasian republic after approximately thirty years. In addition, it analyses potential threats to Armenia arising from the expansion of its ties with the West.

Armenia’s Relations with U.S. and EU:
Background Information

On January 14^th, 2025, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Armenian Foreign Affair Minister Ararat Mirzoyan launched the U.S.-Armenia Strategic Partnership Commission. This partnership underscores the United States’ strategic interests in the South Caucasus republic, given its substantial investments—approximately $3.3 billion in Armenia, supporting defence security.

Washington and Yerevan have strengthened their bilateral relationship through significant advancements in economic, security, and democratic cooperation. Trade between the nations has tripled since 2020, reaching $321 million in 2023, with a focus on technology, food security, and nuclear energy cooperation. Defence collaboration includes $45 million in funding for border security, military financing, and cyber defence capabilities, complemented by joint peacekeeping exercises. Democratisation efforts involve combating corruption, bolstering human rights, media independence, and law enforcement reform, supported by over $16 million for patrol police training. Enhanced people-to-people ties, growing academic exchanges, and cultural preservation underscore the broad scope of U.S.-Armenia engagement, fostering mutual resilience and shared development goals.

Commenting on the strategic partnership, Dmitry Peskov, the Russian President’s press secretary, said Yerevan is free to cultivate relationships with any country, even the U.S. Peskov also added that Moscow values the Armenian-Russian relations and wants to develop them further.

Previously, on January 9^th, 2025, the Armenian government formally approved a draft bill, beginning its application for European Union membership. As noted by the Armenian Foreign Affairs Minister, Ararat Mirzoyan, since Yerevan and Brussels have increased their cooperation in the last years, they might sign a new partnership in the upcoming months, which could include visa liberalisation.

On January 13^th, 2025, although the Armenian Minister of Economy, Gevorg Papoyan, confirmed that Yerevan does not want to abandon the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the Minister of Finance of the Republic Vahe Hovhannisyan stated Yerevan is assessing the risks of the country’s withdrawal from the EAEU. On this issue, on January 15^th ,2025, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk said that Moscow views the Armenian government’s decision to launch the EU accession process as the beginning of the republic’s withdrawal from the EAEU.

Geopolitical Context

Armenia plays a significant role in the Caucasus geopolitics, a region which has attracted interests from regional and international players because of its strategic position.

The September 2023 Azerbaijani offensive and subsequent capture of Nagorno-Karabakh have further destabilised the region, prompting Yerevan to reassess its security alliances and foreign policy.

Armenia’s traditional dependence on Russia for security assurances is diminishing because of Moscow’s strategic shift toward Baku and Ankara, and its reduced capacity to meet Yerevan’s security requirements considering the Ukraine conflict. This shift highlights Armenia’s precarious position and the broader implications for regional stability.

Armenia’s strategic shift westward, particularly toward the United States and the European Union, constitutes a substantial geopolitical realignment with far-reaching implications.

By deepening ties with Western powers, Yerevan seeks to mitigate the risks posed by its deteriorating relationship with Moscow and its exposure to Azerbaijani military threats. Western engagement in Armenia, including economic assistance, defence cooperation, and democratic reforms, reflects an effort to counterbalance Russian influence in the South Caucasus. This development could reshape the regional balance of power and may embolden other post-Soviet nations to pursue similar strategies in response to Russian influence.

Although Armenia remains a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), the Pashinyan government has, over the past year, signalled the possibility of distancing the country from these Moscow-led frameworks in favour of Western alignment. While some Armenian officials maintain closer ties with the EU and the U.S. are integral to a balanced foreign policy approach aimed at diversifying Armenia’s partnerships, Pashinyan’s condemnation of Armenia’s longstanding military dependence on Russia, and the growing discourse on Yerevan’s potential for self-sufficiency without Russian support, may cause unease within the Kremlin.

Given Moscow’s geopolitical interests and historical assertion of the Caucasus as part of its blizhnee zarubezhe (near abroad) and lebensraum (vital space), it is improbable that the Kremlin will relinquish its Armenian influence without actively countering Western involvement and governmental policies.

Risk Assessment

1. Risks of Armenia’s Western Alignment. While Armenia’s pivot toward the West offers potential benefits, it also carries significant risks. Economic dependency on the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) remains a critical factor, as Armenia’s trade with EAEU members constitutes a substantial portion of its GDP. Yerevan’s withdrawal from the EAEU risks disrupting existing trade relationships and provoking retaliatory economic actions from Moscow as well as impact Russian companies operating in the country. Moreover, dependence on Western powers for security and economic assistance may not provide Yerevan with the immediate assurances it desires, considering the EU measured approach to admitting new members and the upcoming U.S. foreign policy under the new Trump Administration. Armenia’s potential inability to secure timely Western support in the face of Azerbaijani aggression could exacerbate its vulnerability during this geopolitical transition.
2. Azerbaijan and Turkey’s Geopolitical Strategies. Armenia’s westward shift will not occur in isolation but rather in a landscape shaped by Azerbaijan and Turkey’s coordinated strategies. Azerbaijan’s increased assertiveness, notably its 2023 Nagorno-Karabakh offensive, indicates Baku’s intent to exploit Yerevan’s vulnerability. Turkey, as a key Azerbaijani ally and regional power, is actively pursuing its ambitions to strengthen its influence in the South Caucasus, aligning closely with Russia on energy and trade projects such as the “Green Corridor.” Both nations are likely to intensify pressure on Armenia, whether through diplomatic isolation, military posturing, or economic leverage, particularly if Yerevan reduces its reliance on Moscow.
3. Role of Other International Actors. Beyond Russia, the United States, and the European Union, other global powers such as China and Iran could play pivotal roles in shaping Armenia’s geopolitical future. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) presents both opportunities and challenges for Armenia, particularly in infrastructure development and trade diversification. Conversely, closer economic ties with Beijing might create dependencies that would be at odds with Armenia’s democratic reform process or cause friction with Washington and Brussels. Iran is a key regional ally of Armenia and economic partner which might not welcome a Yerevan’s increasing cooperation with Washington and Brussels. The risk of losing the Iranian support in regional geopolitics and business might further destabilise Armenia
4. Economic and Security Implications of EU Accession. Armenia’s pursuit of EU membership represents a significant geopolitical shift; however, the path forward is exceedingly complex. Although Armenian accession offers benefits such as improved access to European markets, visa liberalisation, and structural development funds, it mandates adherence to demanding standards in governance, human rights, and legal reform. Meeting these requirements may strain Yerevan’s resources and domestic political stability, particularly amid ongoing tensions with Azerbaijan. The prospect of immediate security improvements for Armenia through EU alignment is questionable because of the lack of a cohesive European military structure capable of countering direct Azerbaijani aggression.

Conclusion

Armenia’s geopolitical significance stems from its potential to serve as a conduit between rival global powers; however, its susceptibility to external influence underscores the challenges of Western engagement in the post-Soviet region.

Yerevan’s alignment with Washington and Brussels may strengthen its resilience against Azerbaijani aggression and foster regional stability, but it risks exacerbating tensions with Moscow and complicating its role within the EAEU and CSTO.

Consequently, Armenia’s geopolitical trajectory will have far-reaching implications for the balance of power in the South Caucasus and the broader Eurasian region.

Picture: Armenia Base Map (Credits: ERCC – Emergency Response Coordination Centre, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons)

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