Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 49 Issue 5
SpecialEurasia OSINT Unit

Executive Summary

The Assad regime’s sudden collapse in Syria marks a profound and far-reaching geopolitical shift. The rapid Syrian opposition military gains, spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have significantly altered regional political and military conditions.

President Bashar al-Assad’s departure from the Middle Eastern country, the proposed democratic transition, and the uncertain intentions of HTS raise questions about Syria’s future stability and regional balance of power.

The outcomes challenge the strategic positions of external powers, including Russia and Iran, while offering potential gains for Turkey and other stakeholders advocating for a transitional process.

Drawing upon local and international sources and SpecialEurasia’s previous analyses, this report assesses the Syrian situation, its geopolitical implications, and the developing interests of regional and international stakeholders.

Key Takeaways

1. Syria’s Transition: Assad’s exit marks the end of 50 years of family rule and signals an uncertain path toward democratic elections as declared by the interim government.
2. HTS Rebranding Strategy: Under Abu Mohammed al-Julani, HTS has sought to shift its image from a militant organisation to a political actor, raising concerns about its long-term goals.
3. External Power Struggles: Destabilisation of Russia and Iran’s strategic footholds in Syria causes them significant setbacks, while Turkey positions itself as a diplomatic broker.
4. Regional Instability Risks: Syria’s situation echoes the rapid fall of Afghanistan, with potential implications for global counterterrorism and regional alliances.

Information Context

• Military Campaign: The Syrian opposition, led by HTS, swiftly captured Aleppo, Homs, Hama, and Damascus within weeks, leading to the regime’s collapse.
• Assad’s Flight: Bashar al-Assad fled the country, though his location remains uncertain. Initial speculations pointed to Iran, Russia, or Latakia until the Russian sources confirmed that the formed Syrian president arrived in Moscow.
• Russian and Iranian Setbacks: Moscow and Tehran, long-time allies of Assad, failed to provide decisive support, diminishing their influence in Syria.
• Economic Factors: Years of Western sanctions degraded Syria’s military capacity, contributing to low morale and desertions among government forces.

Syria: Geopolitical Scenario

Local Scenario

• Syrian Governance: The interim administration announced elections but faces scepticism about its ability to ensure stability or implement democratic reforms.
• HTS Control: Despite promises of moderation, HTS keeps ties to extremist ideologies, sparking fears of future governance challenges or a return to militancy.

Regional Scenario

• Iran’s Corridor Collapse: Assad’s fall disrupts Iran’s “Shia Crescent,” a strategic corridor linking Tehran to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Gaza.
• Turkey’s Regional Influence: Ankara utilises its geopolitical leverage to promote peaceful democratic transitions, while concurrently advancing its national security and strategic objectives.
• Middle East Spillover: The situation increases risks of extremist mobilisation and cross-border conflicts, particularly affecting Lebanon, Israel, and Iraq.

International Scenario

• Russia’s Weakness: The inability to defend Assad signals broader limitations on Russian military and geopolitical reach, exacerbated by its ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
• Western Interests: The U.S. and allies may capitalise on this shift to counter Iranian and Russian influence while mitigating extremist threats.

Conclusions and Recommendations

Relevance of Risk – High

 The situation in Syria is pivotal for regional stability and counterterrorism efforts. The potential for Syria to devolve into a failed state or a hub for extremist groups poses significant threats to neighbouring countries and global security.

Recommendations

1. Monitor HTS Activities: Evaluate HTS’s adherence to democratic principles and its collaborative engagement within international structures.
2. Support Transitional Government: Provide diplomatic and logistical aid to ensure fair elections and institution-building.
3. Counter Extremism: Enhance counterterrorism measures, focusing on preventing extremist spillovers into Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia.
4. Assessing Israel and Turkey’s Strategies: The removal of Assad from power in Damascus could embolden Tel Aviv and Ankara to seize Syrian territory, establishing buffer zones to safeguard national interests.
5. Investigating Jihadist Propaganda. The collapse of the Assad regime may embolden various terrorist organisations, enabling them to amplify their propaganda and encourage increased activity and recruitment within Syria. Mirroring the aftermath of the U.S. military’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, terrorist organizations could exploit events in Syria to advance the narrative of jihadist triumph over perceived adversaries of Islam.

Continuous monitoring and measures will be essential to manage the potential risks arising from Syria’s volatile transition.

In the picture: Flag of the Syrian Revolution (Credits: Modification by AnonMoos of PD image File:Flag of Syria (1930–1958, 1961–1963).svg (previous non-vector versions were by Coup de crayon 2011), Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons) 

*We originated this report from the latest episode of SpecialEurasia Geopolitical Report Podcast available at this link.

For further reports and risk assessment about Syria and the Middle East, contact us at info@specialeurasia.com and ask for our monitoring and consulting services.