Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 49 Issue 4
SpecialEurasia OSINT Unit

Executive Summary

The Syrian Civil War has entered another volatile phase, with significant insurgent advances in both northern and southern regions. In the north, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) continues to threaten the strategic city of Homs after capturing Aleppo and Hama. Simultaneously, southern Syria faces severe instability, with local factions in Daraa and As-Suwayda achieving significant territorial control at the expense of government forces.

These developments underscore the Syrian Arab Army’s (SAA) operational weaknesses and raise alarm over Bashar al-Assad government’s survival, regional stability, and the security of Russian military assets.

This intel brief, based on local and international sources and SpecialEurasia’s previous monitoring reports, examines the regional and Syrian dynamics, integrating recent developments in Daraa and As-Suwayda to analyse the risks and strategic considerations.

Key Takeaways

1. The insurgent advances by HTS in the north and losing control in Daraa in the south highlight the SAA’s declining capacity to hold key territories, further destabilising the Assad regime.
2. The fall of strategic urban centres such as Homs or Daraa could directly threaten Damascus and Russian military assets in Tartus and Latakia, undermining Russian and Iranian influence in Syria.
3. Escalations in Daraa and As-Suwayda demonstrate the fragmented nature of Syria’s conflict, with localised insurgencies compounding national instability.
4. Syrian and Russian forces have intensified air and artillery strikes in Homs and Hama, while southern redeployments aim to contain losses.

Information Context

• Northern Front (Homs and Hama): HTS advances continue to undermine SAA positions. Artillery and airstrikes by joint Syrian-Russian forces reportedly inflicted significant casualties on insurgents in the northeastern countryside of Homs.
• Southern Front (Daraa and As-Suwayda): Government forces have lost control of over 90% of Daraa, including its capital. In As-Suwayda, local fighters seized checkpoints, prompting high-ranking officials to flee their posts. The SAA has started redeployments and is establishing a security cordon, as confirmed by official statements and field reports.
• Civilian Impact: Massive displacement continues, with reports of congested exit routes from Homs and Daraa. Difficulties in delivering aid, owing to security risks, have aggravated the humanitarian crisis.
• Military Dynamics: SAA’s challenges include widespread corruption, low morale, and unreliable local militia support. The intensification of joint air and artillery operations underscores reliance on external allies to stabilise fronts.

Geopolitical Scenario

Local Scenario

• Homs: The city’s strategic location connects Damascus to the Alawite-dominated coast and Russian military installations. Its potential fall would compromise defence lines and supply routes.
• Daraa and As-Suwayda: Daraa’s symbolic significance as the uprising’s birthplace and its geographic proximity to Jordan amplify its importance. As-Suwayda’s instability further fragments the regime’s control in the south, exposing vulnerabilities along the Jordanian border.

Regional Scenario

• Russia and Iran: Assad’s key allies face competing geopolitical priorities. Russian efforts in Ukraine and Iran’s domestic challenges dilute their ability to provide consistent support to Assad.
• Neighbouring Countries: Jordan’s closure of its border reflects concerns over refugee influxes and the spillover of violence.

International Scenario

• Russian Installations: Escalations in Homs and the southern provinces increase the risk to Russian assets in Tartus and Latakia.
• Broader Implications: HTS and local faction successes challenge previously negotiated de-escalation zones, potentially prompting renewed international mediation or military responses.
• Russia-Iran-Turkey’s Dialogue. Turkey, Russia, and Iran will meet in Doha to address Syria’s renewed conflict.

Key Actors

• HTS: Demonstrates strategic and operational agility under Abu Mohammad al-Julani, consolidating gains in northern Syria.
• Local Factions (Daraa and As-Suwayda): Fragmented yet effective in challenging SAA control, capitalising on local grievances.
• SAA and Assad Government: Struggling with operational coherence, reliant on Russian and Iranian military support to sustain its territorial presence.
• Russia and Iran: Both pivotal for Assad’s survival but increasingly constrained by external commitments.
• Turkey: Capable of conducting military operations and supporting local actors in Syria and the Middle East as well as exploiting its private military companies (PMCs).
• Civilians and minorities: Caught in escalating violence, with Alawite communities facing targeted sectarian attacks.

Narrative and Relations

• Syrian Government: Continues to frame the conflict as a Western-backed conspiracy, seeking to justify authoritarian measures and rally support.
• Insurgents: HTS and southern factions present themselves as legitimate representatives of national grievances, leveraging local and ideological support to sustain their campaigns.

Relevance of risk – High

The concurrent threats to Homs, Daraa, and As-Suwayda represent critical turning points in the Syrian Civil War, threatening the Assad’s control and regional stability. The implications extend to Russian and Iranian strategic interests and the broader balance of power in the Middle East.

For further reports and risk assessment about Syria and the Middle East, contact us at info@specialeurasia.com and ask for our monitoring and consulting services.