Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 49 Issue 2
SpecialEurasia OSINT Unit
Executive Summary
The Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) spearheaded the most substantial rebel offensive in years, targeting the Syrian city of Aleppo. The operation forced Syrian forces to redeploy and led to significant territorial losses, including Aleppo Airport and Maraat al-Numan in Idlib province.
Russian airstrikes, conducted to support the Assad regime, targeted rebel strongholds, with reports suggesting the possible death of HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani. This development intensifies regional tensions, particularly given ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. The situation remains fluid, with potential implications for regional stability and geopolitical alignments.
This report assesses the implications of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) offensive in Aleppo, the potential death of its leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani, and the broader geopolitical impact on regional stability and key state actors.
Syrian Rebels’ Offensive Against Aleppo and HTS
Background Information
On Saturday, November 30th, 2024, HTS-led insurgents launched a large-scale assault on Aleppo, a city held by the Syrian government since 2016. The attack involved multiple fronts and resulted in substantial casualties among Syrian forces.
In response, Russia conducted airstrikes targeting HTS positions, killing an estimated 300 fighters. The offensive represents the most significant shift in front lines since the 2020 Russian-Turkish de-escalation agreement.
According to Arab and international sources, Russian airstrikes resulted in the death of HTS leader al-Julani, though this claim has not been substantiated by the Russian Ministry of Defence.
Despite years of relative calm, the operation has reignited hostilities in northern Syria, with HTS capturing critical infrastructure and strategic locations.
HTS evolved from Jabhat al-Nusra, Al-Qaeda’s former affiliate in Syria, founded in 2011. Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the group’s leader, initially pledged allegiance to Al-Qaeda and later distanced HTS from the organisation in 2016. HTS maintains a hardline Islamist ideology but has attempted to position itself as a nationalist force within Syria.
Al-Julani, a prominent figure in Syria’s insurgency, is known for his strategic leadership and efforts to gain international legitimacy. The U.S. designated him a global terrorist, offering a $10 million bounty. His potential death, following a Russian airstrike, could destabilise HTS leadership and operational capacity.
Geopolitical Context
The offensive in Aleppo unfolds against a backdrop of intensifying regional instability, underscoring the intricate web of alliances and rivalries shaping the Middle East. Syria’s civil war, now in its 13th year, remains a theatre for competing geopolitical interests involving Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the United States. Each of these actors has vested stakes in the conflict, which complicates any resolution and increases the likelihood of broader repercussions.
Russia’s Role: Moscow remains a steadfast ally of the Assad regime, providing military support through airstrikes and logistical aid. Russia’s interests in Syria extend beyond regime stability to maintaining its strategic foothold in the eastern Mediterranean, particularly via its naval base in Tartus and airbase in Latakia. The recent provision of further military assistance to Damascus reflects Russia’s determination to sustain Assad’s regime, even as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham launches its most substantial offensive in years. However, the potential death of HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani could serve Russian interests by weakening the operational leadership of one of the most formidable rebel groups.
Iran’s Position: Iran’s influence in Syria is part of a broader strategy to extend its regional power through a network of allied militias, including Hezbollah. Iran perceives the HTS offensive as part of a broader U.S.-Israeli agenda to destabilise its regional influence. Tehran’s response will involve reinforcing its proxy forces in Syria, particularly given the recent setbacks it has suffered from Israeli strikes in Gaza and Lebanon. The reported loss of Iranian-backed personnel in Aleppo, as indicated by rebel sources, highlights the potential weaknesses in Tehran’s regional stance, potentially necessitating a reassessment of its military approach.
Turkey’s Stake: Turkey plays a dual role in the Syrian conflict, balancing its opposition to the Assad regime with its interests in preventing the rise of Kurdish autonomy along its border. Ankara supports various rebel factions in northern Syria while maintaining a military presence to enforce the 2020 de-escalation agreement with Russia. The current offensive strains Turkish-Russian cooperation, particularly if the situation in Aleppo deteriorates further. Ankara’s cautious approach, as evidenced by its restraint thus far, including the prevention of further opposition operations, aims to avoid direct conflict with Russia while maintaining leverage over rebel groups.
U.S. and Western Involvement: The United States has expressed concern over the deteriorating security situation, reaffirming its stance against Assad’s reliance on Russia and Iran. Although Washington denies any involvement in the HTS-led offensive, its calls for a political solution under U.N. Security Council Resolution 2254 suggest continued diplomatic engagement. The U.S. also remains focused on counterterrorism operations, particularly against HTS and other Islamist factions, to prevent any resurgence of groups that could threaten Western interests.
Kurdish Dynamics: The Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), a core component of the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), have expanded their control in Aleppo amidst the Syrian army’s redeployment. This development poses a challenge to both Damascus and Ankara, with Turkey likely to view Kurdish gains as a direct threat to its national security. Any further expansion of Kurdish influence in Aleppo could provoke Turkish military responses, exacerbating tensions along the Syrian-Turkish border.
Risk Assessment
- Immediate Regional Instability: The capture of Aleppo and Maraat al-Numan could embolden HTS and other factions, escalating violence across northern Syria.
- Heightened Russian-Turkish Tensions: Both nations may struggle to maintain their 2020 de-escalation agreement, risking further military confrontations.
- Power Vacuum within HTS: If confirmed, Al-Julani’s death could lead to internal power struggles, weakening HTS in the short term but potentially spawning more radical splinter groups.
- Broader Geopolitical Repercussions: The conflict risks spillover into neighbouring countries, particularly given the ongoing hostilities in Gaza and southern Lebanon. Iranian and Turkish responses will be critical indicators of future developments.
- Increased Civilian Casualties: Escalating airstrikes and ground combat raise the likelihood of significant humanitarian crises, particularly in Idlib and Aleppo provinces.
Conclusion
The HTS offensive coincides with heightened tensions in Gaza and Lebanon, where Israel’s conflict with Hamas and Hezbollah remains volatile.
Iran’s allegation of Israeli and U.S. participation in the Aleppo offensive mirrors wider regional concerns regarding a coordinated strategy to diminish Iran and its allies. This interconnectivity heightens the risk of the Syrian conflict spreading into adjacent regions, particularly in the event that Hezbollah or other Iranian proxies respond to perceived Western aggression.
The Aleppo offensive exemplifies the wider geopolitical contest taking place in the Middle East, highlighting its interconnected nature.
The involvement of major regional and global powers complicates the conflict and increases the risk of wider destabilisation. The responses of each actor in the ensuing days will be instrumental in determining whether this offensive represents the advent of a new phase in the Syrian war or merely a transient escalation in a prolonged conflict.
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