Kavkaz Files ISSN 2975-0474 Volume 30 Issue 1
SpecialEurasia OSINT Unit

Executive Summary

This report analyses the ongoing political unrest in Georgia following the suspension of its EU membership negotiations and the contested parliamentary elections of October 27^th, 2024.

Protests against the Georgian Dream party’s governance, allegations of election manipulation, and accusations of increasing Russian influence have intensified tensions in Tbilisi. The European Union and the United States have expressed concerns over democratic backsliding, further complicating Georgia’s geopolitical standing.

This analysis, based on local and international sources as well as SpecialEurasia’s previous reports, assesses the immediate and long-term risks to Georgia’s political stability and its implications for regional security.

Background Information

The political crisis in Georgia escalated following the October 2024 parliamentary elections, where the ruling Georgian Dream party claimed a majority with 54.08% of the vote. Opposition parties, representing 37.77% of the electorate, rejected the results, alleging widespread electoral fraud, including voter intimidation and procedural manipulation.

Claims of Russian interference cast a shadow over the elections, with opposition leaders and President Salome Zourabichvili accusing Moscow of implementing a “special operation” to preserve its influence in Georgia.

In the last days, protests erupted in Tbilisi after the government announced the suspension of EU membership negotiations. Demonstrations intensified when police used force to disperse protesters and media representatives.

The European Parliament denounced the election as undemocratic, advocating for a re-election conducted under international oversight and threatening punitive measures. Despite these developments, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze rejected EU criticisms, accusing the bloc of using “blackmail” tactics.

Georgia:
Geopolitical Scenario

Georgia’s strategic significance in the South Caucasus, a vital corridor for Eurasian energy transit, amplifies the regional impact of its political unrest. Since 2012, Georgian Dream has balanced its pro-Western rhetoric with cautious engagement with Russia. However, recent legislative actions perceived as restricting democratic freedoms, such as the “foreign agents law,” have raised international alarm.

The EU suspended Georgia’s membership candidacy, citing democratic backsliding and alignment with Kremlin policies. High-level EU and U.S. officials, including Charles Michel and Antony Blinken, criticised Georgia’s governance issues and election irregularities. Georgian Dream’s response reflects a broader strategy of maintaining domestic stability by appeasing both Western and Russian interests. The party’s reluctance to impose sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine demonstrates this balancing act, given Georgia’s economic dependence on Russian markets.

Domestically, Georgian Dream’s association with Bidzina Ivanishvili, a billionaire with ties to Russia, has fuelled accusations of authoritarianism and Moscow’s influence. The government’s crackdown on protests and civil society organisations further polarises the political landscape, with President Zourabichvili warning of a drift towards a “quasi-Russian” state.

Risk Assessment

• Domestic Instability. Continued protests, heightened political polarization, and governmental suppression of dissenting voices are expected, potentially culminating in violent clashes. Ensuring the legitimacy of future elections remains a crucial imperative.
• Russian Influence. The possibility of additional Russian interference in Georgia’s political processes continues to be elevated, jeopardising national sovereignty and democratic institutions.
• Dependence on Russian Capital. While short-term economic gains from Russian capital inflows offer relief, long-term reliance on an unstable partner increases vulnerability. Diversification and economic reforms are essential to mitigate this risk.
• Western Integration. EU and NATO accession prospects are at risk because of perceived democratic erosion. Legislative actions undermining civil liberties may delay or derail integration efforts.
• Territorial Disputes: Russia’s support for Abkhazia and South Ossetia remains a destabilising factor. Increased military activity or political manoeuvring in these regions could escalate tensions.
• Structural Challenges. High unemployment and corruption continue to hinder economic growth and investor confidence. Social unrest could exacerbate these issues, leading to economic stagnation.

Outlooks

• Short-Term Outlook: Continued protests and international pressure will heighten political volatility.
• Medium-Term Outlook: Failure to address governance concerns may isolate Georgia diplomatically and economically.
• Long-Term Outlook: Prolonged instability risks undermining Georgia’s democratic framework, entrenching Russian influence, and disrupting regional security.

Key Indicators to Monitor

1. Increased Russian military or political activity in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
2. Legislative changes affecting media and civil society freedoms.
3. EU and U.S. diplomatic actions, including sanctions or aid suspensions.
4. Domestic economic performance and public sentiment towards the government.

Conclusion

Georgia faces a precarious geopolitical future with significant internal and external pressures threatening its stability and regional security role. Immediate political reforms and strategic realignment are crucial to mitigating these risks.

For any further inquiries, reports, or consulting services pertaining to Georgia, please feel free to contact us at info@specialeurasia.com.