Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 48 Issue 6
Author: Giuliano Bifolchi
Executive Summary
Russia continues to pursue an assertive development agenda in the Arctic, emphasising the region’s economic potential and strategic significance for national security. This strategy includes expanding infrastructure, fostering private investment, and enhancing transport routes, specifically the Northern Sea Route (NSR).
Government initiatives encompass new economic incentives, infrastructure funding, and socio-economic enhancements to attract labour and improve living conditions in the Arctic. Meanwhile, the Russian government is updating its Arctic Strategy to reflect new geopolitical risks and economic pressures, with a mandate for a revised approach by mid-2025.
Examining the scope of planned initiatives and rising strategic imperatives, this report assesses Russia’s Arctic development and predicts potential consequences for regional stability and global security.
Background Information
The Arctic has emerged as a focal point for Russia’s long-term economic and strategic ambitions. Russia’s Arctic territory, spanning over a quarter of its total land area and hosting extensive natural resources, includes 20,000 kilometres of coastline, many mineral deposits, and a substantial portion of global energy reserves.
In 2020, President Vladimir Putin introduced the “Arctic 2035” strategy to ensure economic growth and safeguard national security in this region. Recent legislative changes and funding allocations have transformed the Arctic into a strategic region for Russia, particularly as it seeks to expand its sphere of influence in the High North.
The government’s strategy includes several core initiatives: economic support through extensive infrastructure projects, tax incentives, affordable housing schemes, and development of the NSR. A critical element of this strategy is establishing reliable transport infrastructure, enabling year-round logistical support, and securing key maritime routes. Recent directives underscore a need to revise Arctic plans by mid-2025, considering updated risk assessments and security requirements.
Russia’s Arctic: Current Situation and Analysis
On October 22nd, 2024, during a meeting on the Arctic, Prime Minister Mishustin highlighted the region’s growing significance to Russia’s security and economic plans. The Russian Prime Minister stressed the ongoing establishment of a robust infrastructure network in the Arctic, including the world’s largest free economic zone and three advanced development territories, which collectively host nearly 1,000 active projects, totalling private investments of approximately 2 trillion roubles. These initiatives support tens of thousands of new jobs and provide a foundational platform for expanded energy and mineral extraction activities.
The NSR remains pivotal within this strategy, envisaged as a globally competitive shipping route that connects Asian and European markets through Russia’s Arctic coastline. Recent governmental allocations, including 300 million roubles designated for supporting regular shipments via the NSR, demonstrate Moscow’s commitment to the route’s development. This project not only serves as a transport artery for Russian territories but also aims to attract international maritime interest, particularly from Chinese stakeholders aligned with Beijing’s polar Silk Road initiative.
Beyond transport, socio-economic projects are targeting improvements in public services and housing for Arctic residents. According to Mishustin, recent programs focus on improving living standards by offering affordable housing loans with a 2% interest rate, extensive public transport upgrades, and a subsidy-funded infrastructure enhancement initiative. The Kremlin’s additionally allocated resources to establish 16 key Arctic settlements as growth hubs, where investment in housing, healthcare, education, and engineering systems will receive concentrated support. These hubs, strategically positioned, could facilitate sustainable economic zones that attract skilled labour and support long-term regional stabilisation.
The Russian Ministry of the Far East and Arctic Development (Minvostokrazvitiya) will oversee the revision of the Arctic strategy by mid-2025. The Ministry will revise the Arctic strategy to address the heightened geopolitical tensions and operational difficulties that Russia now faces, reviewing goals, challenges, and benchmarks established in 2020. Additional the Ministry of Construction (Minstroi) will focus on building critical emergency response infrastructure, especially in remote areas like Khatanga, and creating a consolidated approach to address the specific needs of Arctic urbanisation, including a mandate to assess and potentially close uninhabited multi-family buildings.
Extending planning to 2050, the new mineral resource strategy prioritises extensive exploration of the Arctic’s vast untapped reserves. Governmental directives to expand dockyard capacity for Arctic fleet repairs underscore Russia’s anticipation of increased Arctic maritime activity.
Implications and Forecast
- Near-Term (2024-2025). By pushing Arctic development, Moscow aims to assert its control over important resources in the region and stay ahead in shipping and resource extraction. With over 2 trillion roubles already allocated for private investments and additional public funds directed at infrastructure, Russia aims to consolidate its Arctic dominance despite economic constraints from international sanctions and logistical challenges. Key near-term indicators include the potential for increased military infrastructure to secure Arctic borders, given Russia’s prioritisation of the region for national security. Concurrently, developments in the NSR could position Russia as a central player in future polar trade, though the sustainability of foreign partnerships, particularly with Chinese stakeholders, warrants scrutiny.
- Medium-Term (2025-2035). As Russia completes revisions to its Arctic strategy, anticipated legislative and operational changes could significantly affect the geopolitical stability of the High North. Economic improvements and better living conditions could incentivise skilled workers to stay in the regions, thus bolstering the Kremlin’s medium-term development prospects. Expansion of extractive industries and associated logistics will coincide with elevated environmental risks, leading to potential flashpoints with international environmental agencies and Arctic Council member states. The NSR’s role in international trade routes will increase in significance, especially if global warming trends permit greater navigability. A Russian-controlled NSR could disrupt existing maritime routes and challenge established norms of free maritime access, potentially raising tensions with NATO countries and other Arctic stakeholders. Russia’s plans for new industrial hubs, increased resource extraction, and expanded Arctic port facilities indicate a commitment to strengthening its presence in the region, possibly altering the security landscape. The “Arctic 2035” plan’s success might hinge on Russia’s capacity to sustain infrastructure and workforce provisions against economic headwinds. Regional instability or escalated military tensions in the Arctic could emerge as Moscow extends its geopolitical posture.
- Long-Term Outlook. Russia’s strategy indicates a future in which it emerges as a primary Arctic power, controlling key maritime and resource channels. The risk of conflict in the Arctic is still high because growing military and economic activities are encroaching on territory and influence claimed by other nations in the region. The US, Norway, and Canada, along with other international actors, will scrutinise Moscow’s actions in the Arctic, potentially prompting countermeasures or strengthening Arctic security partnerships. The NSR’s development may prompt broader geopolitical realignments within Arctic frameworks, influencing Russia’s relations with both Western and Asian counterparts.
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