Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 48 Issue 4
Author: Giuliano Bifolchi
Executive Summary
This report analyses the recent diplomatic developments and economic cooperation initiatives between Tajikistan and Kuwait following President Emomali Rahmon’s official visit to Kuwait from November 3rd-5th, 2024.
The discussions, which addressed a range of subjects including bilateral trade, cultural exchange, counter-terrorism, and climate initiatives, underline a strategic enhancement of Tajikistan-Kuwait relations. During this visit, the countries signed nine key agreements aimed at fortifying their partnership.
Combining both domestic and foreign resources, including previous SpecialEurasia assessments, this report presents a view of the increasing strategic convergence between these two countries.
Background Information
From November 3rd– 5th, 2024, the President of Tajikistan, Emomali Rahmon, paid an official visit to Kuwait to participate in the International Conference on counter-terrorism and border security, a key event within the “Dushanbe Process” framework.
During his stay, President Emomali Rahmon had high-level talks with Kuwaiti Foreign Affairs Minister Abdullah Ali Abdullah Saleh Al-Yahya, emphasising both nations’ shared commitment to advancing security and economic stability.
Both countries expressed interest in collaborating on water management, climate action, and socio-economic development, with Kuwait committing to backing Tajikistan’s initiatives, particularly those in partnership with the Kuwait Development Fund. Rahmon and Saleh Al-Yahya acknowledged the importance of cultural and educational collaboration, seeking to deepen these ties to foster mutual understanding. Their discussions underscored a shared commitment to cooperation in addressing regional security threats and reinforcing global stability.
Tajikistan and Kuwait established formal diplomatic relations in 1991, shortly after the Central Asian republic acquired independence following the collapse of the Soviet Union. This period marked the beginning of Dushanbe’s efforts to establish itself within the international community, and its relations with Kuwait represented one of its earliest connections to the Gulf region.
During the ‘90s, Kuwait recognised Tajikistan’s potential as a partner in Central Asia and saw opportunities for collaboration in areas such as economic development, trade, and cultural exchange. Over the following decade, relations developed gradually, with both nations showing a mutual interest in strengthening ties across multiple sectors.
Tajikistan, under President Emomali Rahmon, actively sought partnerships with countries, like Kuwait, that could provide investment and technical assistance to help the nation develop after the Soviet collapse.
Since the early 2000s, diplomatic and economic exchanges between Dushanbe and Kuwait have grown. The Gulf Arab country’s commitment to supporting Tajikistan’s development has manifested through the Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development, which has financed several infrastructure projects, including road construction, energy initiatives, and water resource management.
These projects reflect the Arab country’s broader strategy of extending development aid to nations where it can have a meaningful impact while securing long-term partnerships. Kuwait’s investments in key areas where Tajikistan lacks domestic resources have benefited the country. The focus on infrastructure has been significant, as Tajikistan seeks to improve its connectivity and overcome logistical challenges that hinder economic growth and foreign investment.
In recent years, the two countries have entered a new phase of cooperation marked by high-level visits and expanded diplomatic engagement.
Tajikistan: Geopolitical Scenario
- Strategic Role in Central Asia. Its strategic location in Central Asia places Tajikistan at the crossroads of regional security interests, particularly those concerning Afghanistan, China, Russia, and neighbouring states. Bordering Afghanistan to the south, Tajikistan plays a critical role in regional security, especially with the ongoing instability across the Afghan border. Russia and China are the most influential external actors in the country, given their interest in maintaining stability in the region. Moscow supports Dushanbe’s security through military presence and training, aiming to prevent the spread of extremism and protect its southern borders. Beijing’s involvement is primarily economic, as it promotes projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to secure trade routes and maintain influence over critical infrastructure. This combination of military and economic backing underscores Tajikistan’s importance as a buffer zone in the Central Asian security environment, with Dushanbe balancing its ties to Moscow and Beijing to secure vital support.
- Dushanbe’s Economic Performance and Dependency. The Tajik economy faces persistent challenges, heavily relying on remittances from Russia and foreign aid, particularly from China. While Tajikistan has resources such as hydroelectric potential, minerals, and agricultural products, underdevelopment and lack of diversification limit the economic prospects. Inadequate infrastructure, regular power shortages, and corruption deter foreign investors, creating an environment that hinders industrial development and economic progress. While the BRI has boosted Tajikistan’s infrastructure, Beijing’s participation has increased the country’s debt and reliance on Chinese aid. Consequently, Dushanbe remains vulnerable to economic shocks, with limited resilience to counteract external or internal economic shifts, despite recent efforts by the government to improve the business environment and encourage foreign investment.
- Terrorist Threats and Security Challenges. The Central Asian republic faces critical security threats linked to both domestic issues and external pressures. The presence of extremist groups, particularly the Islamic State Wilayat Khorasan or Tehrik-e-Taliban Tajikistan operating in the region, poses ongoing risks to the nation’s stability. Tajikistan’s porous border with Afghanistan remains a major security concern, as it allows for potential infiltration by militants and extremists. The government has implemented measures to strengthen security, especially along the Afghan border, but challenges remain in addressing the socio-economic factors that contribute to radicalisation, especially among youth in marginalised regions like the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO). The recent circulation of Islamic State propaganda in the Tajik language, through outlets like Voice of Khorasan, highlights the group’s intent to recruit within Tajikistan, increasing the urgency for the government to counter these threats effectively.
Conclusion
Tajikistan and Kuwait’s recent diplomatic engagement illustrates the positive momentum in their relationship, characterised by both countries’ eagerness to solidify their cooperation through wide-ranging agreements.
These initiatives position Kuwait as an influential partner for Tajikistan, capable of supporting the country’s infrastructure development and contributing to long-term stability. The Gulf Arab country’s backing for climate initiatives and water management projects highlights its strategic interest in the Central Asian republic’s socio-economic resilience, aligning both nations in their pursuit of sustainable development goals.
This cooperation serves Kuwait’s broader aim to strengthen its presence in Central Asia, facilitating financial collaboration and expanding its geopolitical footprint.
Kuwait aims to increase its involvement in regional security initiatives, particularly in counter-terrorism, through this partnership. By doing so, Kuwait underscores its intention to promote stability in Central Asia while enhancing its economic ties with Tajikistan.
The agreements made during Emomali Rahmon’s visit represent a landmark in Kuwait-Tajikistan relations, establishing a foundation for future cooperation that will foster mutual growth and security for both nations.
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