Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 48 Issue 3
SpecialEurasia OSINT Unit

Executive Summary

Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, marked by a decisive lead over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris with over 71 million votes and 277 electoral votes, introduces a new phase in U.S. foreign policy which might affect Eurasia’s geopolitical dynamics significantly.

Trump’s presidency can shape the Ukraine conflict, escalate the U.S.-China economic confrontation, and influence the stability of Central Asia, the Middle East, and the broader Heartland region. Washington’s policy recalibration may also seek to balance Russian, Turkish, and Chinese influence, redefining alliances and strategies across Eurasia.

Trump’s stance favours economic pragmatism and strategic alliances, prioritising trade and energy partnership instead of democracy and human rights.

Election Overview

Although final vote counts are pending, Trump’s lead is sufficiently clear, underscoring a shift in U.S. priorities. This victory reverses Democratic Party momentum, following Joe Biden’s administration, and reorients U.S. engagement with allies, adversaries, and economic rivals alike.

Central to Trump’s agenda is a return to an “America First” doctrine, with probable implications for Eurasia, particularly through a reassessment of Washington’s strategic interests over ideological commitments.

Trump’s Administration: Implications and Risk Scenarios

• Economic Goals Are Likely to Take Precedence Over Ideological Alignment. Under Trump’s presidency, U.S. policies might significantly address trade imbalances, enforce tariffs, and press NATO allies, especially within the European Union, to meet their financial commitments to collective defence. Trump’s administration may reduce emphasis on democratic values, favouring economic partnerships and alliances that serve direct U.S. interests.
• Ukraine Conflict and Relations with Russia. Trump’s stance on the Ukraine conflict is likely to shift U.S. policy towards negotiation, seeking a peace arrangement with Moscow which can benefit both the parties, although, on the ground, the Russian troops have been registering consistent successes. Should Trump pursue a diplomatic route, he may start talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin aimed at de-escalating hostilities, though such a move could disappoint Ukraine, its European allies, and NATO partners. While Moscow remains focused on achieving its objectives in Ukraine, the Kremlin might explore a possibility of peace negotiations with the new Trump administration. Trump’s prioritisation of stability over prolonged conflict may alter the current trajectory of U.S.-Russia relations, with potential repercussions for European security.
• Middle East Tensions and the Iran-Israel Axis. Trump’s re-election is likely to see a renewal of his pro-Israel policies. The administration could adopt a more aggressive stance against Iran, recalling Trump’s prior abandonment of the JCPOA and his firm alliance with Israel. Increased tensions between Israel and Iran over the Palestinian issue may destabilise the region, impacting trade and oil markets. Trump’s previous efforts in establishing the Abraham Accords, which aimed to normalise Israel’s relations with Arab nations, could indicate his aim for stability in the Middle East, despite tensions from anti-Iran sentiments.
• Central Asia and the New Great Game. Central Asia’s strategic relevance is increasingly recognised in the U.S. policy given its positioning within the “Heartland” and proximity to both Europe and Asia. The region represents a focal point in the “New Great Game,” where U.S., Russian, and Chinese interests intersect. Washington may reinforce its presence here, countering Russian, Chinese and also Turkish and Iranian ambitions through alliances with regional actors such as the Gulf states and India. Trump’s administration may also seek to consolidate influence in the South Caucasus, particularly in Armenia and Georgia, thereby challenging Moscow’s dominance while navigating political instability, such as recent issues in Georgia’s parliamentary election.
• China Confrontation and Economic Warfare. The U.S.-China relationship is expected to remain tense, with Trump resuming economic and geostrategic competition. The administration may impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods, pressure the EU and other allies to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and target Chinese investments in Central Asia to prevent Beijing from securing critical infrastructure and economic influence in the Heartland. Trump’s inclination towards economic warfare might priorities U.S. interests while reducing dependency on Chinese supply chains, potentially complicating Eurasian economies that have relied on Chinese capital and infrastructure.
• Iran, North Korea, and the Prospect of Diplomatic Engagement. Iran and North Korea represent critical points of focus within Trump’s Eurasian strategy. An assertive stance on Iran, driven by alliances with Israel and certain Gulf states, may increase regional instability while attempting to contain Tehran’s regional ambitions. North Korea, meanwhile, could see a return to Trump’s unconventional diplomatic methods, as witnessed in previous summits with Kim Jong-un. This potential diplomatic engagement could serve as a strategic lever in Washington’s broader Eurasian policy, influencing dynamics across Northeast Asia and potentially alleviating nuclear tensions.

Outlook

The U.S. administration under Trump will focus on a strategic mix of economic pragmatism and selective diplomacy in Eurasia. In Central Asia, a U.S. presence may aim to limit Russian and Chinese influence, while in the Middle East, Trump’s pro-Israel stance could exacerbate conflicts with Iran.

With a renewed economic confrontation with China, the administration will utilise tariffs and trade controls to support U.S. industries, potentially straining transatlantic and Eurasian economies, while the Taiwan’s issue might reinforce Washington’s strategic goals in Asia-Pacific.

Trump’s presidency may thus redefine the “New Great Game” by leveraging U.S. economic and military influence while adopting a realist approach focused on immediate U.S. interests, suggesting a geopolitical landscape marked by strategic realignment and calculated restraint in Eurasia.

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