Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 48 Issue 1
SpecialEurasia OSINT Unit

Executive Summary

North Korea’s choice to send troops to support Russia in Ukraine is a significant change in global dynamics that could affect security in Eastern Europe and the Asia-Pacific region.

Media articles and open sources reported the deployment of approximately 12,000 North Korean personnel to Russian military fronts, a move reinforcing Moscow’s offensive in Ukraine while enabling Pyongyang to strengthen its military capacity through direct combat experience.

The deepening partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang might challenge existing strategic balances in East Asia, particularly on the Korean Peninsula, where North Korea could apply battlefield tactics learned in Ukraine.

The report analyses Russia and North Korea’s strategic goals, evaluates the risks to global and regional stability, and assesses the potential impacts on Western alliances. The emerging partnership signals a new phase in anti-Western coalitions that could extend beyond Ukraine, drawing increased attention from NATO and its allies and intensifying regional tensions in East Asia.

Background Information

Recent diplomatic and military developments underline a growing alliance between Russia and North Korea, as highlighted in recent talks in Moscow between North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

In these discussions, held on Friday, November 1^st, 2024, Choe pledged North Korea’s steadfast support for Russia’s military efforts in Ukraine. According to Choe, Pyongyang is fully confident that Russia, under President Vladimir Putin’s leadership, will secure “a great victory” in what she termed “a sacred struggle to protect sovereign rights and security interests.” Lavrov acknowledged North Korea’s backing and expressed “deep gratitude to our Korean friends for their principled position regarding the events that have now unfolded in Ukraine.”

Thousands of North Korean troops are now stationed within Russia, with the United States cautioning that Moscow may soon deploy these forces directly into combat. The possibility that Pyongyang might deploy its troops in Ukraine  date back to July 2024, when the South Korean TV Chosun, citing the words of a Seoul’s official, reported that North Korean units would have arrived in August 2024 in the Ukrainian territory, with the goal of aiding Russian military campaigns.

Open sources indicate that these North Korean forces, numbering 12,000, include special units and support personnel positioned across Russia’s Kursk Oblast following initial training at Russian military facilities in Primorsky Krai, Khabarovsk Krai, and other eastern regions.

Satellite imagery confirms North Korean troops in Russian training grounds, with additional footage showing their preparation and equipment assembly. This mobilisation builds upon the recent Russia-North Korea Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, which intensifies cooperation on military, economic, and political fronts.

Scenario Analysis

• Assessing North Korea’s Strategic Choices and Potential Rewards. Pyongyang’s decision to commit military personnel to the Ukraine conflict serves immediate tactical and broader strategic objectives. This deployment provides North Korea with invaluable combat experience, allowing its forces to operate under complex conditions against an adversary armed with advanced weaponry. Such exposure is crucial for a military that has not engaged in large-scale combat since the Korean War. By directly observing and participating in Russia’s combat operations, North Korean forces may seek to adopt and integrate key tactical advancements, such as the use of drones, electronic warfare (EW) techniques, and countermeasures against precision-guided munitions.
• North Korea can decrease its reliance on Beijing by forming a dependable alliance with Moscow. This shift may give Pyongyang greater autonomy in regional decision-making and reduce Beijing’s leverage over North Korean policy, particularly on the Korean Peninsula. This partnership might indirectly support North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. Any enhancements in Pyongyang’s missile or nuclear capabilities would heighten its deterrent posture against the United States, South Korea, and Japan.
• Russia’s Tactical Benefits and Strategic Aims. North Korean forces’ deployment offers immediate operational advantages, allowing for the redistribution of Russian military personnel to higher-priority regions within Ukraine. North Korean troops could relieve pressure on Russian units involved in continuous front-line deployments, contributing to Moscow’s attritional warfare strategy by enabling sustained offensive capabilities.
• Russia strengthens its narrative of global anti-Western alliances, displaying solidarity with states confronting Western sanctions. North Korean military deployment in the Ukraine conflict can support Moscow’s long-term aim of positioning itself at the centre of an emerging anti-NATO coalition, providing a powerful symbol of resistance against US and European influence.
• Implications for the Ukraine Conflict. In the Ukraine conflict, North Korean troops may serve in various capacities, though their exact role remains unclear. If Moscow employs them primarily in high-risk, frontline positions, the potential for high casualties could undermine Pyongyang’s aim of accumulating effective combat experience. Conversely, if Russian command structures incorporate North Korean units into complex operational roles, Pyongyang’s forces could acquire exposure to advanced military strategies and technologies. Including foreign troops signals a wider change in Russian military strategies, showing an increased use of international alliances to support its operations in Ukraine.
• The presence of North Korean troops might prompt NATO and other Western powers to step up their help to Ukraine, potentially escalating the conflict. The symbolic nature of North Korea’s contribution to Russia’s war effort also serves to heighten international condemnation, with potential sanctions targeting both Moscow and Pyongyang.

Risk Assessment

Moscow and Pyongyang’s military cooperation poses significant risks to regional stability in East Asia. As North Korea enhances its military capabilities, it may adopt a more aggressive stance on the Korean Peninsula, increasing the likelihood of confrontation with Seoul.

This developing alliance diminishes China’s traditional stabilising influence, potentially triggering a new arms race in East Asia as the United States and Japan respond to a more emboldened North Korea. As a result, South Korea might increase its military readiness in anticipation of the Pyongyang’s growing assertiveness, which will raise tensions throughout the region.

The strengthened ties between Russia and North Korea also threaten global nuclear non-proliferation efforts. While it remains uncertain whether Moscow will directly support Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions, the alliance could enable North Korea to access advanced military technologies and expertise. In response, the United States may bolster its missile defence systems in East Asia, prompting Japan and South Korea to enhance their defensive capabilities, which would further fuel an arms race in the region.

North Korean forces’ deployment in Ukraine introduces strategic complexities for NATO and European security. Although the immediate impact on the conflict may be limited, this coalition of anti-Western states shows Moscow’s readiness to leverage support from isolated regimes.

Such a pattern could encourage other states to align with Russia, challenging NATO’s security framework and prompting an expansion of NATO’s commitments in Eastern Europe. The unpredictability introduced by North Korean troops may escalate the conflict’s violence, leading to heightened international responses and further entrenching divisions between Western and Eastern blocs.

For further reports and information about North Korea-Russia’s relations and Pyongyang’s military involvement in Ukraine, contact us at info@specialeurasia.com and request a call to assess our consulting services.