Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 47 Issue 9
SpecialEurasia OSINT Unit
Executive Summary
The 2024 parliamentary elections in Uzbekistan signify a major step in the country’s political development, highlighting domestic stability and Tashkent’s stable governance. The elections demonstrated a stable participation rate of over 71.5% and marked the conclusion of a new phase of constitutional reforms, backed by the Central Election Commission (CEC).
Although Uzbekistan has made substantial progress in reforming its political and judicial institutions, international observers and local experts cite continued limitations in political plurality and media independence as areas requiring further development.
This report synthesises information from local and international sources, including SpecialEurasia’s previous analyses, to provide insights into Uzbekistan’s parliamentary elections and their implications for the country’s role in Central Asia.
Background Information
On October 27th, 2024, Uzbekistan held elections for the Legislative Chamber of the Oliy Majlis and local kengashi, under the theme “My choice is – my prosperous homeland.” With over 71.5% voter participation, the turnout exceeded the minimum threshold of 33%, establishing these elections as valid per the CEC.
Voting occurred in 10.7 thousand polling stations across Uzbekistan, with 57 stations facilitating overseas voting in 39 countries. The Liberal Democratic Party of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev emerged as the leading party with 64 seats, albeit in a political landscape where opposition remains absent.
The elections reflect Uzbekistan’s continued trajectory of institutional reforms, with priorities set on security, defence, and alignment with international standards. However, external observers, such as the OSCE and the European Union, report that political freedoms and media plurality remain constrained.
Notably, while technical procedures were reportedly well-managed, the lack of opposition limits voter choice. A positive development involves allocating 40% of parliamentary seats to women, along with introducing legislative changes to increase voter representation.
Geopolitical Scenario
Under the leadership of the Uzbek president Shavkat Mirziyoyev, re-elected in July 2023, the Central Asian republic has undergone legislative reforms to modernise the country. The 2023 constitutional referendum marked a turning point, increasing the protections for human rights, reinforcing legislative authority, and expanding electoral participation to younger voters.
Uzbekistan’s strategic geopolitical location is crucial to regional stability, especially during this domestic political and legislative transition. Uzbekistan, surrounded by Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, has historically been a key player in regional politics and a pathway for significant economic initiatives such as Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Balancing the influence of multiple global actors has become essential for Tashkent’s security and economic strategy, with the following major players:
- Russia remains a dominant regional influence and a critical economic partner, especially in areas of trade and labour migration, despite a developing partnership structure since the end of the Soviet era.
- China has expanded its role, becoming Uzbekistan’s largest trading partner. With significant investments in infrastructure, Beijing’s interest in Tashkent aligns with its broader regional ambitions, particularly through the BRI.
- The United States maintains strategic interests in Central Asia, predominantly focused on regional security dynamics related to Afghanistan, and supports the country’s democratic reforms through economic cooperation.
- The European Union sees Uzbekistan as a key element in its Asia connectivity strategy, offering an alternative to Russia-China influence through sustainable development partnerships.
- Turkey and the GCC share cultural and economic interests in the Central Asian republic, with Turkey’s historical ties and the GCC’s investment interests enhancing Uzbekistan’s diplomatic and economic outreach.
Conclusion
The 2024 legislative elections serve as a foundational step toward consolidating Uzbekistan’s stability and promoting economic development.
Through recent constitutional reforms and updating its political systems, Tashkent shows its dedication to stability at home and in the Central Asian area. The new legislature, with expanded powers and a progressive gender quota, stands poised to enact critical laws that address security challenges and align with international standards, thereby increasing investor confidence and regional influence.
In tandem, these elections reinforce Uzbekistan’s potential as an economically attractive partner amidst the shifting geopolitical landscape.
For further reports and information about Uzbekistan and Central Asia, contact us at info@specialeurasia.com and request a call to assess our consulting services.
