Kavkaz Files ISSN 2975-0474 Volume 28 Issue 3
SpecialEurasia OSINT Unit

Executive Summary

The Georgian Dream party has secured a parliamentary majority with approximately 54% of the vote in Georgia’s recent elections. This outcome, disputed by pro-European opposition leaders, has raised concerns over electoral integrity and the future of Georgia’s EU candidacy.

Based on SpecialEurasia’s previous assessments and Western, Georgian, and Russian sources, this analysis considers both local narratives and international reactions to provide a balanced perspective.

European and U.S. officials call for an investigation into alleged fraud, while the Georgian Dream party asserts that they conducted the elections transparently.

Background Information

The 27 October 2024 parliamentary elections in the South Caucasus republic resulted in Georgian Dream securing a 54.08% majority, according to official figures from the Central Election Commission. However, pro-European opposition factions, which collectively captured 37.77% of the vote, have widely protested the ruling party’s win.

These opposition parties, including the National Movement, Coalition for Change, and Strong Georgia, have refused to recognise the results, alleging voter intimidation, procedural manipulation, and incidents of multiple electronic votes by individual voters.

Pro-western president Salome Zourabichvili claims the country has fallen victim to ‘Russian special operation’. Tina Bokuchava, a prominent National Movement leader, denounced the outcome as the product of “stolen elections,” while opposition figure Mikheil Saakashvili, currently detained, called on citizens to take to the streets to demonstrate against what he described as an “illegitimate government.”

Western leaders, notably U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and European Council President Charles Michel, have expressed serious concerns.

Antony Blinken condemned reported instances of voter intimidation, misuse of state resources by the ruling party, and a lack of transparencies in the voting process, urging an immediate and thorough investigation.

Charles Michel echoed these sentiments, urging Georgian authorities to address alleged irregularities and “ensure the integrity of democratic standards” in line with EU expectations. He further underscored the critical role of the country’s Central Election Commission in preserving an impartial electoral process, calling for transparency and accountability to safeguard Georgia’s aspirations for EU membership.

Russia, meanwhile, has approached the election controversy from a defensive stance, with Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova responding to accusations from Salome Zourabichvili that Moscow was complicit in electoral manipulation.

Zakharova dismissed these claims as “baseless” and counters that the West’s involvement only destabilised the region. She argued further that the criticism of Brussels towards Georgian Dream and its alleged interference highlighted a hypocritical stance, considering Europe’s internal political challenges. Zakharova stated, “The European Union cannot realistically offer ‘a European future’ given its ongoing economic and social struggles, further exacerbated by reliance on the United States.”

The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) also issued preliminary observations, highlighting that Georgian Dream affiliates undue pressured voters, resulting in an “uneven playing field” for opposition candidates. The OSCE emphasised the need for local authorities to comprehensively review the alleged irregularities to reinforce the credibility of its democratic process.

Georgia: A Geopolitical Scenario

Its strategic location underscores Georgia’s geopolitical significance in the South Caucasus, a region that serves as a crucial nexus for Eurasian energy transit and economic integration.

The ruling Georgian Dream party, led by Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, maintains a complex balancing act between advancing ties with the West and managing a tense but unavoidable relationship with Moscow.

Since Georgian Dream came to power in 2012, the party has promoted a foreign policy that nominally supports integration with Western institutions, but its stance has drawn growing scepticism in Washington and Brussels, particularly considering recent domestic legislation targeting media freedom and civil society.

Tbilisi’s relationship with the West remains formally cooperative, with Bidzina Ivanishvili’s party reiterating its intention to work towards meeting EU accession standards. However, recent criticisms from Brussels and Washington over democratic backsliding and alleged pro-Russian tendencies within the Georgian Dream leadership have strained these relations.

The European Union recently suspended Georgia’s membership candidacy, citing legislative actions perceived as curbing freedoms and aligning Tbilisi with Kremlin-driven policies. High-ranking EU officials, such as Charles Michel, have been vocal in urging Tbilisi to address governance issues and electoral irregularities to align with Brussels’ democratic expectations. The United States has similarly voiced concerns, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken highlighting potential electoral manipulation and the misuse of state resources by Georgian Dream.

The geopolitical landscape has further shifted since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, intensifying Tbilisi’s diplomatic challenges. Historically, Georgia has faced territorial disputes with Moscow, which continues to support the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Although Georgian Dream has cautiously condemned Russia’s actions in Ukraine, it has not imposed sanctions, wary of antagonising Moscow. This nuanced stance reflects Tbilisi’s dependence on Russia as a trade partner, with significant portions of Georgia’s energy and agricultural exports intertwined with Russian markets.

Within this broader framework, Georgian Dream continues to argue that maintaining economic and political stability necessitates a calibrated approach to both Western and Russian interests. The government has defended its electoral victory as a mandate for “peace and development,” yet persistent civil unrest and foreign criticisms may complicate this agenda.

Conclusion

Considering the contested election results, the situation in Georgia could develop in multiple ways:

1. Domestic turbulence and political crisis. Protests, if sustained, may escalate into broader confrontations, echoing unrest seen in Ukraine and Armenia, with potential consequences for national stability and governance.
2. Political stability and diversified foreign policy. Georgian Dream could consolidate its position, leveraging its mandate to maintain a balance between Western integration and essential economic ties with Russia. This scenario assumes Tbilisi will adopt a dual-approach strategy, carefully managing its relationships with Brussels, Washington, and Moscow.
3. Brussels-Tbilisi’s confrontation. A firm response from the EU, possibly signalling stalled candidacy discussions, could drive Tbilisi to reconsider its policies. The EU’s approach will depend on how effectively the South Caucasus republic addresses the electoral disputes and maintains transparency.

For further reports and information about Georgia and the South Caucasus, contact us at info@specialeurasia.com and request a call to assess our consulting services.