Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 47 Issue 6
Author: Silvia Boltuc
Executive Summary
The recent 13th meeting of the Ministers of Economy and Trade of the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS) in Bishkek underscored Turkey’s growing role in Central Asia. Discussions centred on key strategic projects, particularly the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, which positions Ankara as a significant player in Eurasian trade and logistics.
The OTS meeting also highlighted ongoing efforts to promote a green economy and digital transformation within the Turkic-speaking countries.
SpecialEurasia’s previous assessment, alongside local media and official statements, confirm the increasing geopolitical influence Turkey is exerting through both economic initiatives and cultural diplomacy in the region.
This report analyses how Ankara’s ambitions are reshaping the geopolitical landscape of Central Asia, with direct consequences for Moscow and Beijing.
Background Information
The Organisation of Turkic States (OTS) meeting in Bishkek brought together the ministers of economy and commerce from Turkey, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Hungary to discuss key projects, including the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway. This project is of strategic importance, offering a new logistical corridor between Europe and China, bypassing Russia’s traditional routes. The meeting also explored environmental sustainability and digital transformation, signalling the region’s intent to integrate modern economic strategies into their cooperation.
Ankara closely links its long-term vision to unite Turkic-speaking nations under its influence with its broader geopolitical strategy. Through state-controlled agencies like the Turkish Directorate of Religious Affairs, known as “Diyanet”, and the Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TIKA), Ankara continues to expand its cultural and economic footprint in Central Asia, extending beyond infrastructural projects to include religious and humanitarian outreach.
Scenario Analysis
By altering trade routes away from Russian-controlled corridors, Ankara’s strategic undertakings, including the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, directly challenge Moscow’s influence in Central Asia. The railway enhances the Turkish leverage as a key player in Eurasian trade, strengthening its ties with Central Asian capitals and increasing its geopolitical reach.
Pan-Turkism, revived through the OTS and Ankara’s broader regional strategy, further threatens Moscow’s and Beijing’s interests.
The Kremlin, which traditionally views Central Asia as part of its blizhnee zarubezhe (near abroad) and sphere of influence, sees Ankara’s growing role as an existential challenge to its geopolitical dominance. Pan-Turkism not only undermines Moscow’s soft power but also threatens the security balance in countries like Kazakhstan, where ethnic Russians form a significant part of the population.
Beijing is concerned about the growing impact of pan-Turkism and its implications for Xinjiang, where Uighur separatism remains a security concern. Although Erdogan’s government has faced criticism from the Turkish public for not being more involved and condemning Beijing’s strategy in Xinjiang, Ankara’s strong stance on Uighur rights has already affected how the Chinese public perceives the issue and has the potential to disrupt long-term Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects in the region.
Future Risk Scenarios
- Scenario 1: Moscow escalates its involvement in Central Asia, particularly in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, to counter Ankara’s growing influence. This could lead to increased military or economic intervention, reminiscent of Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
- Scenario 2: Beijing may intensify its diplomatic efforts to engage with Ankara in managing tensions over the Uighur issue, possibly offering economic incentives or deeper cooperation in other sectors to offset the risks posed by pan-Turkism. Thanks to this cooperation, China and Turkey might counter the Russian regional strategy and pose a threat to Moscow’s presence in its blizhnee zarubezhe.
- Scenario 3: Ankara leverages its NATO membership and strengthens its role as a Western-aligned power in Central Asia, creating a geopolitical realignment that counters both Russian and Chinese interests in the region.
Conclusion/Recommendations
Moscow and Beijing must reassess their strategic positions in Central Asia considering Ankara’s growing influence. For the Kremlin, reinforcing diplomatic and economic ties with Central Asian capitals is crucial, alongside increased cultural diplomacy to counter the pan-Turkist agenda. Security cooperation with regional governments will also need to be enhanced to prevent further erosion of Moscow’s influence.
Beijing should focus on strengthening its developmental and security cooperation with Central Asian states to protect its BRI interests. Addressing the Uighur issue more comprehensively will be essential to limiting Turkey’s soft power influence in Xinjiang.
Governments in the region should engage in proactive diplomacy with Ankara to manage its ambitions and avoid escalation. Balancing Ankara’s growing influence with regional stability will require coordinated efforts between Moscow, Beijing, and the Central Asian capitals.
Contact us at info@specialeurasia.com to request information about our consulting services and reports on Turkey’s presence in Central Asia and pan-Turkism.
