Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 47 Issue 4
SpecialEurasia OSINT Unit

Executive Summary

President Emomali Rahmon’s recent visit to Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) marks a continued effort by the Tajik government to strengthen socio-economic development and enhance security in the region. During his official mission to GBAO, Rahmon visited and inaugurated several infrastructure projects, emphasising development ahead.

Despite Dushanbe’s continued efforts to stabilise the region, GBAO remains a strategic geopolitical hotspot, affected by its location bordering Afghanistan and China, with persistent ethnic tensions, economic hardships, and external influences, particularly from China and Russia.

This report aims to assess the significance of Rahmon’s visit and its impact on regional security and development, drawing from SpecialEurasia’s previous analyses and local and international media sources.

Key Findings

• Rahmon’s visit underscores Dushanbe’s focus on promoting economic development in GBAO, leveraging infrastructure projects to integrate the region more closely with the rest of Tajikistan.
• Ethnic tensions, marginalisation of the Pamiri population, and a history of government’s strict policies persist in GBAO despite development efforts.
• The region’s geopolitical significance has drawn interest from China and Russia, raising concerns over the stability of the Sino-Russian-Tajik nexus in Central Asia.

Rahmon’s Visit to GBAO:Background Information

Gorno-Badakhshan, occupying over 40% of Tajikistan’s territory, has long been an area of political, economic, and social unrest. Its remote, mountainous geography isolates it from the rest of the country, and the Pamiri people, the majority ethnic group in GBAO, have historically resisted Dushanbe’s authority. The region shares strategic borders with China, Afghanistan, and Kyrgyzstan, which makes it an essential geopolitical area for trade and military interests.

On October 12^th-14^th, 2024, the Tajik President Emomali Rahmon paid an official visit to GBAO, which coincided with Tajikistan’s 33^rd Independence Anniversary celebrations. Rahmon inaugurated or inspected different economic projects such as a building stone production plant, a sandal shoe manufacturing plant in the centre of Khorog, a metal structures plant. In addition, the president got acquainted with the progress of work on the construction of the Sebzor hydroelectric power station, commissioned the Khorog-Kozidekh and Surkhsangov-Vanch high-voltage power lines, as well as a road bridge.

Scenario Analysis

Rahmon’s visit aligns with Tajikistan’s broader strategy of consolidating control over GBAO through a combination of economic development and increased security measures. By investing in infrastructure and industrial facilities, Dushanbe seeks to not only improve the region’s economic prospects but also reduce its reliance on external actors.

Ethnic tensions in GBAO, particularly between the Pamiri people and the Tajik government, continue to pose a challenge to stability. The region has experienced periodic uprisings and violent protests, most recently in 2021 and 2022, when the Tajik government’s crackdown on protests led to international concern. Despite Tajik attempts to foster socio-economic progress, the GBAO region still faces ongoing security issues, with the government relying on military tactics to maintain stability.

Externally, China and Russia’s involvement in GBAO highlights the region’s geopolitical importance. China’s investments in infrastructure, particularly the Dushanbe-Kulma highway and military facilities, reflect its strategic interests in securing a stable transit route through Central Asia to support Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. Russia maintains its influence through the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), focusing on monitoring militant activity and securing the frontier. Moscow and Beijing’s common interests may lead to more competition or cooperation, depending on how the region develops.

Risk Assessment

The internal security risk in GBAO remains elevated because of ongoing ethnic tensions, the marginalisation of the Pamiri population, and the potential for future protests or clashes. The government’s use of military force in Dushanbe raises the chances of future conflicts with local populations.

Regionally, GBAO’s proximity to Afghanistan and China introduces external security risks. The ongoing instability in Afghanistan, particularly the presence of militant groups, such the Islamic State Wilayat Khorasan (ISKP) or Tehrik-e-Taliban Tajikistan (TTT),  poses a direct threat to Tajikistan’s border security. The region’s role as a transit route for drug trafficking and other illicit activities further exacerbates security concerns. China’s expanding role in GBAO, particularly through infrastructure and military investments, also complicates the regional security environment, as Beijing seeks to secure its western frontier in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR) and advance its Belt and Road Initiative.

Domestic problems and the delicate balance of Chinese and Russian interests in GBAO contribute to the geopolitical risk. While both powers share an interest in maintaining stability, their competing long-term goals could lead to friction. Moscow’s focus on security and military influence contrasts with Beijing’s emphasis on economic and infrastructure development, which may lead to diverging priorities in the region.

Possible future scenarios include:

1. GBAO local socioeconomic development and stabilisation. Thanks to Dushanbe’s regional efforts, GBAO might register an upgrading in socioeconomic conditions. Therefore, if the central authority will avoid further military operations in the area, relations between local citizens and the government might improve.
2. Escalation of Internal Unrest. Continued ethnic tensions and economic grievances spark renewed protests in GBAO, prompting a harsher crackdown by the Tajik government. This scenario could cause further international criticism and destabilise the region, making it more vulnerable to external actors.
3. Increased Chinese Influence. China’s infrastructure investments deepen, leading to enhanced control over GBAO and its role as a transit route in the Belt and Road Initiative. This would diminish Russian influence in the region and shift the geopolitical balance towards Beijing.
4. Increased Russian Influence. Because of the threat coming from internal stability and neighbouring Afghanistan, Dushanbe might hugely rely on Moscow’s military and political support, especially because of the Russian presence in the 201^st military base near the Tajik capital. The major Russian involvement in the Central Asian republic’s stabilisation might create the conditions for an increasing influence and presence of Russian forces and companies in the country.

Contact us at info@specialeurasia.com for more information about our monitoring reports and consulting services on Tajikistan and the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region.