Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 47 Issue 3
Author: Giuliano Bifolchi

Executive Summary

The arrest of an Islamic State militant in Ukraine has raised concern on the country’s potential role as a transit territory towards Europe for terrorist groups and jihadist fighters.

The report explores the implications of this event and the broader security risks stemming from Ukraine’s involvement with foreign militant networks, particularly the potential use of its territory as a base for extremist activities.

This investigation used Ukraine intelligence agencies and security forces’ official statements, publicly available information in Russian and English languages, and previous SpecialEurasia’s previous reports and risk assessments.

Key Points

1. Significant Event/Development. On October 12^th, 2024, the Security Service of Ukraine detained an Islamic State militant in Kyiv. The militant, originally a citizen from Central Asia, was on the Interpol wanted list since 2017. During his presence in Ukraine, he facilitated the transfer of fighters to Syria and had been instrumental in efforts to legalise other jihadists in Ukraine.Local sources stated the militant could have been involved in creating a safe network for extremists, enabling their movement through Ukraine. The detainee had been in the country since before the beginning of the Ukraine conflict (February 2022) using false documents to avoid detection.
2. Previous Evidence. In January 2023, in Kyiv, Rustam Azhiev, also known as Abdul Hakim al-Shishani, leader of the Ajnad al-Kavkaz terrorist group, met with Akhmed Zakayev, a Chechen exiled in the United Kingdom, to support the Chechen volounteer battalions in their fight against the Russian armed forces in Ukraine.
3. Current Situation. Because of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the weakened border controls, foreign fighters have been able to infiltrate inside the country. Since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict, several terrorist organisations have disseminated jihadist propaganda which invited their militants to reach Ukraine and, by becoming members of the International Legion, acquire fighting skills and weapons to use them against the West and Russia.
4. Future Outlook. If further investigations reveal that more militants have been using Ukraine as a base or transit point, this would have far-reaching consequences for European security. For instance, in December 2023, German security forces arrested several Central Asian citizens linked with the Islamic State accused of planning terrorist attacks after they had reached Europe through the Ukrainian territory.

Ukraine and the Terrorist Threat: Analysis and Key Commitments

The arrest of the Islamic State militant in Kyiv supports previous sources regarding terrorist groups’ targeting of the Ukrainian territory since the vacuum of power and the weak border control caused by the ongoing conflict with Russia.

Although the Kyiv government has repeatedly stated its dedication to combating threats coming from various terrorist organisations, the presence of volunteer battalions within the International Legion, some of whom hold radical views on Islam, could raise concerns about internal stability in the nation.

The involvement of jihadist fighters in Ukraine, whether through passive refuge or active participation in the conflict, creates long-term risks.

If reports of collaboration between Ukrainian forces and foreign jihadist groups, such as Ajnad al-Kavkaz, are accurate, Ukraine may face international scrutiny. In addition, Western nations might face increased strategic risks because of the potential use of the Ukrainian territory by jihadists for training or as a pathway to Europe.

Strategic Summary

The possibility of Ukraine becoming a logistical hub for Islamic State and other jihadist groups is a major security concern. The strategic implications are:

• Border and Immigration Weaknesses. Conflict in Ukraine has compromised border security, enabling individuals with fake documents to go undetected. This raises concerns about the broader capacity of Ukraine to manage its territorial security.
• Terrorist Networks. The arrest indicates secretive networks enabling the transfer of jihadists via Ukraine. These networks, if left unchecked, could pose an increasing threat to European security, given the possibility of extremist fighters migrating westward.
• Threats for Europe. Arrests of terrorist cells in Germany showed their link with the Ukrainian territory. To prevent future violent attacks on European soil, it is crucial to share intelligence and tighten border control with Ukraine.
  

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