Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 47 Issue 1
Authors: Christian Tratzi

Executive Summary

This report examines how the Islamic State in the latest issue of al-Naba has leveraged the ongoing conflict between Israel and regional Shiite forces, particularly Hezbollah, to assert its position within the Muslim world.

The Islamic State has framed the conflict as a clash between non-believers, employing religious principles to rationalise forthcoming assaults on Jews and Shiites, to bolster its credibility and recruitment endeavours.

The report is based on open sources, including local and international media, social media statements, and insights from SpecialEurasia’s contacts and regional experts.

Key Findings

1. The Islamic State views the Israel-Shiite conflict as an opportunity to assert dominance in the Muslim world.
2. The group’s propaganda emphasises the religious duty to combat both Shiites and Jews.
3. Calls for global attacks on Israel and its allies are central to the Islamic State’s strategic messaging.

Propaganda Analysis

In the recent issue of al-Naba (462), the Islamic State’s use of religious rhetoric to frame the Israel-Hezbollah conflict serves multiple purposes. The group portrays the war as a divine struggle between infidel forces, considering both sides as enemies of true Islam. In doing so, the terrorist group seeks to galvanise support among disillusioned Sunni Muslims who may have lost faith in other groups, positioning itself as the sole protector of authentic Islam.

This propaganda heavily emphasises the concept of al-wala’ wa-l-bara’ (loyalty and disavowal), portraying loyalty to the Islamic State and the disavowal of heretical Shiites and Jews as religious obligations. By invoking past Islamic battles, such as the Battle of Khaybar, the group attempts to inspire its followers to see their struggle as part of a historical and divine mission.

The Islamic State also exploits the perceived failures of Shiite groups, portraying their losses, as the Israeli killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, as evidence of divine punishment. Framing the current situation in the Middle East as an opportunity to capitalise on the weakening of their enemies, the group encourages further attacks. They present the targeting of Shiites, in particular, as a way to purify Islam from apostasy.

In its messaging, the Islamic State draws a sharp line between itself and other Sunni factions, accusing them of betraying the faith by aligning with Shiite forces. This creates a clear ideological distinction, aiming to delegitimise rival groups and strengthen the Islamic State’s claim as the true vanguard of Sunni Islam.

The group’s apocalyptic tone is central to its propaganda, which portrays the conflict as a precursor to a broader, final confrontation in the Middle East. The Islamic State highlights that their current phase aims to weaken Israel’s regional and global presence, but their ultimate goal is the conquest of Jerusalem.

Geopolitical Risk and Terrorist Threats

1. Increased Global Terror Attacks. The Islamic State’s call for global attacks on Israeli targets and their allies may cause an uptick in terrorist incidents across Europe and other Western nations. Both organised cells and lone actors responding to the propaganda could execute this.
2. A New Sunni Front Against Israel. The group’s long-term strategy could lead to the creation of a new front in the Middle East, directly engaging Israel. This scenario depends on the Islamic State’s ability to gather resources and recruits, positioning itself as the primary Sunni force opposing Israel.
3. Strengthening of Regional Jihadist Networks. As Shiite forces experience losses in the region, jihadist groups like the Islamic State could expand their influence, recruiting from disaffected Sunni populations and filling power vacuums, particularly in destabilised areas of Syria and Lebanon.

Conclusion

Since October 7^th, 2023, when Hamas launched its military operation against Israel, causing Tel Aviv’s military operation in the Gaza Strip, the situation in the Middle East has worsened.

The Israeli elimination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, and Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, alongside other commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), resulted in a weakening of Shiite forces in the region. However, the recent Iranian attack on Israeli territory yesterday exposed a perceived vulnerability in Tel Aviv’s security apparatus.

The Islamic State has effectively utilised the conflict between Israel and Shiite forces to bolster its propaganda, framing the war as a religious obligation that aligns with its broader goals of dominance within the Muslim world. By emphasising both the religious duty to fight and the divine punishment of its enemies, the group seeks to mobilise support and recruit new adherents globally.

The near-term risk associated with this propaganda is a surge in global terrorist attacks, particularly targeting Western nations that are susceptible to Islamic State-inspired operations. The group’s message has a broad reach, extending into virtual spaces where it can easily influence individuals susceptible to its ideology.

In the longer term, the Islamic State may position itself as the primary force opposing Israel, aiming to establish a new Sunni front in the region. This would significantly alter the balance of power in the Middle East, with implications for both regional security and global counter-terrorism efforts. As such, monitoring and countering the Islamic State’s propaganda should remain a priority for intelligence and security agencies worldwide.

For further reports and risk assessment about jihadist propaganda and terrorist threat in Eurasia, contact us at info@specialeurasia.com and request our monitoring reports or consulting services.