Persian Files ISSN 2975-0598 Volume 26 Issue 2
SpecialEurasia OSINT Unit
Executive Summary
On Tuesday, October 1st, 2024, Iran launched approximately 180 missiles at Israel in response to the reported assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh.
Tel Aviv’s defence system successfully intercepted many of these missiles, although a few hit the ground, causing limited casualties. This attack significantly escalates tensions between Israel and Iran, with concerns that the conflict could broaden into a wider regional war.
Both the United States and Israel have warned of severe consequences for Iran if further aggression occurs, raising the possibility of a direct Israeli strike on Iranian soil. Immediate diplomatic efforts are underway, but the risk of further military confrontation remains high.
SpecialEurasia published this preliminary report based on local and international public available information (PAI) and previous analyses and provided possible future risk scenarios.
Iranian Military Attack Against Israel:
Information Analysis
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility for the missile attack against Israel, which it described as retaliation for the deaths of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, and other IRGC leaders.
According to Iranian and international media, the attack targeted three Israeli military installations in the Tel Aviv, including an intelligence base in Glilot, which Israeli forces evacuated in anticipation of the strike.
Israel’s missile defence systems, including the Iron Dome, intercepted a large proportion of the projectiles, minimising physical damage and casualties. However, some Israeli citizens sustained injuries, and shrapnel killed a Palestinian worker in Jericho.
The IRGC declared that if Israel retaliated, Tehran would launch an even more devastating counterattack, demonstrating a readiness for further escalation.
Israel’s government officials clarified that there would be significant repercussions, indicating that they handled the missile attack with a measured but stern response. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) labelled the attack marked a serious escalation in hostilities. Considering the strike, Tel Aviv has heightened its military readiness and strengthened defensive measures across the country.
As SpecialEurasia reported before, the assassination of Nasrallah and other leaders may have caused a military regional escalation, though tensions between Israel and Iran’s proxies had already been intensifying.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reaffirmed his government’s stance on combating Tehran’s influence in the region and reiterated the military’s capacity to strike targets across the Middle East, including within Iran.
The United States played a crucial role in providing intelligence and military assistance to Israel before and during the attack. US officials had warned Israel of an imminent Iranian strike, allowing Israeli forces to prepare and evacuate key sites. Following the attack, Washington reiterated its dedication to defending Israel by providing extra defensive help and ensuring a strong military presence in the region.
US President Biden held an emergency meeting with senior officials, highlighting the gravity of the situation and the potential for broader conflict if Iranian hostilities continue. Additionally, American diplomatic efforts aim to mitigate the potential for escalation, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken condemning the Iranian military actions and urging restraint from all parties.
The attack has inflamed an already volatile regional situation. Iran’s missile strikes followed recent Israeli ground operations in southern Lebanon, which had already strained the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Iranian-backed groups in Iraq have threatened to target US assets if Washington supports any Israeli retaliation against Iran.
Celebrations in Beirut following the Iranian missile strike underscore Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon and its readiness to align with Tehran’s strategic objectives. Meanwhile, Jordan’s air defences intercepted missile and drone intrusions, signalling the broader regional fallout from the escalation.
A moment of the Iranian attack against Israel (Source: Iran Military Twitter Account)
Risk Scenarios
Scenario 1: Full-Scale Israeli Retaliation Leading to Regional War
Description: Following the Iranian missile attack, Israel launches a comprehensive military response targeting key Iranian military infrastructure, energy facilities, and leadership centres. This escalates into a prolonged and wide-ranging conflict involving direct strikes between Israel and Iran.
Impact: A full-scale war between Israel and Iran could lead to significant military and civilian casualties, widespread infrastructure damage, and economic destabilisation in the Middle East. The conflict could draw in regional actors like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the UAE, leading to a broader geopolitical crisis and disrupting global oil supplies.
Scenario 2: Prolonged Proxy Conflict and Asymmetric Warfare
Description: Rather than direct confrontation, Iran and Israel engage in an extended proxy war. Iran strengthens its support for Hezbollah, Hamas, and other militias, while Israel continues limited airstrikes on Iranian and proxy positions in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza. The conflict spreads across multiple theatres but avoids direct Israel-Iran war.
Impact: While avoiding direct war, this scenario leads to long-term instability in the region. Civilian casualties from missile strikes and retaliatory bombings could rise, exacerbating humanitarian crises in Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria. The prolonged conflict would strain Israel’s military and economic resources, while Iran faces economic sanctions and further isolation. Global markets could react negatively to sustained volatility in the region, particularly affecting energy prices.
Scenario 3: Diplomatic De-escalation Amid Regional Tensions
Description: Diplomatic efforts, led by the United States and mediated by regional actors like Oman or Qatar, successfully defuse the immediate threat of a wider conflict. Israel refrains from a large-scale retaliation, while Iran, pressured by internal economic and political challenges, agrees to halt further military actions. Both parties continue low-level skirmishes but avoid full escalation.
Impact: The region could become more stable in the short term if a diplomatic solution is successful, but tensions will still be high. Despite tensions remaining high, a successful diplomatic resolution would avert the immediate threat of war and Israel and Iran would continue preparing for future confrontations. This scenario would lead to a temporary calming of regional markets and a reduction in global energy price volatility, though underlying issues remain unresolved.
*Last update Tuesday, October 1st, 2024 – Time 10.00 pm
For further reports and risk assessment about the Iranian-Israeli confrontation, contact us at info@specialeurasia.com and request our consulting services and monitoring reports.
