Kavkaz Files ISSN 2975-0474 Volume 27 Issue 4
Author: Giuliano Bifolchi

Executive Summary

This report investigates the upcoming forum “North Caucasus: New Geostrategic Opportunities” scheduled on 4-5 October 2024. The forum aims to examine the strategic potential of the North Caucasus in Russia’s global strategy, focusing on infrastructure, regional growth, and human capital.

Key topics include Kremlin’s promotion of a multipolar world order, diplomatic engagements with Middle Eastern and African countries, and the role of the North Caucasus as a bridge in geopolitical relations.

This report is based on publicly available information and SpecialEurasia’s previous studies and sources.

Background Information

• Event Overview. The international forum titled “North Caucasus: New Geostrategic Opportunities” will occur from 4 to 5 October 2024, in Pyatigorsk and Zheleznovodsk, Russia. The event will focus on exploring geostrategic prospects for the North Caucasus within the current global order.
• Forum Objectives. The event’s primary goal is to explore the North Caucasus’s potential as a strategic asset for Russia, focusing on regional spatial growth, infrastructure development, tourism, logistics, and human capital within the wider global system.
• Three Pillars of Cooperation. The forum will focus on three key areas of international cooperation: establishing a fair global order, fostering economic ties, and enhancing humanitarian collaboration, particularly with the Middle East and African nations.
• International Participation. High-level diplomatic and business representatives from nations such as India, Egypt, Iran, Kenya, Mauritius, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are confirmed to attend, signalling a growing global interest in the forum and the Northern Caucasus region.
• Territorial and Urban Development. Discussions will place a strong emphasis on territorial and urban development within the region. Key development institutions like DOM.RF will contribute to conversations on fostering municipal growth and urban planning in the region.
• Humanitarian and Tourism Cooperation. The event will prioritise Russia’s cooperation with Middle Eastern, Asian, and African nations on humanitarian initiatives. Discussions will also address the growth of the hospitality industry and its role in advancing regional development.
• CIS Participation. Representatives from Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries will participate in the forum, reflecting the wider regional interest in utilising the North Caucasus for both geostrategic and economic growth.

North Caucasus’ Forum:
Geopolitical Scenario Analysis

The North Caucasus holds a vital geostrategic position, acting as a bridge for Russia’s interactions with the Middle East and Africa. This region has historically been a focal point for military, economic, and cultural influence because of its location. Today, it continues to serve as a platform for Russia to strengthen ties with non-Western countries, positioning itself as a gateway for diplomatic engagement and cultural exchanges with Eastern and African nations.

At the forum, Russia aims to promote its vision of a multipolar global order, a concept that challenges Western dominance, particularly that of the United States, in shaping international geopolitics. Moscow’s push for a multipolar world reflects its broader strategy of advocating for a balance of power distributed among multiple global centres, rather than being concentrated in Western hands.

The forum also serves as a key tool in Russian foreign policy amidst the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. By attracting representatives from the Middle East, Africa, and post-Soviet states, Moscow seeks to strengthen diplomatic ties and avoid the isolation imposed by Western sanctions. This engagement demonstrates Moscow’s resilience and ability to forge new partnerships in the face of international pressure.

Africa and the Arab world are now crucial arenas of geopolitical competition, according to Russian intelligence assessments. These regions are increasingly becoming battlegrounds for influence among global powers. Russia has expanded its presence in Africa through diplomatic outreach, energy cooperation, and security initiatives, often backed by private military companies such as the Wagner Group.

The North Caucasus also plays a central role in Russia’s broader strategic initiatives. The forum aligns with other significant events, such as the Kavkaz Investment Forum held in Grozny and recent visits by President Vladimir Putin to the region. These activities highlight the importance Moscow places on the area as a hub for advancing its foreign and economic policies.

Through this forum, Russia is actively seeking to enhance its relations with Middle Eastern and African nations. The focus is on strengthening economic, diplomatic, and humanitarian ties, as part of Moscow’s strategy to diversify its global partnerships considering the challenges posed by current geopolitical tensions.

Conclusion

It is essential to monitor the outcomes of the forum, particularly Russia’s success in reinforcing its multipolar agenda and its ability to deepen ties with countries from the Middle East, Africa, and post-Soviet states.

Attention should be given to Russia’s strategic positioning in Africa and the Arab world, especially in terms of energy cooperation, security, and private military involvement. The participation of diplomatic and business representatives will provide insight into how these nations respond to Moscow’s efforts to reduce Western influence.

Key elements for ongoing observation include the development of territorial and urban projects in the North Caucasus, the role of institutions like DOM.RF, and how these initiatives contribute to Moscow’s broader foreign policy goals. The Kremlin’s continued focus on humanitarian cooperation and tourism growth in these regions may show shifts in economic and diplomatic strategies worth following closely.

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