Kavkaz Files ISSN 2975-0474 Volume 27 Issue 3
Author: Giuliano Bifolchi
Executive Summary
This report analyses the recent developments in Dagestan, focusing on Moscow’s strategic interests in the republic and the geopolitical significance of the North Caucasus. It highlights the visit of Yuri Chaika, the Russian President’s representative in the North Caucasus, to Dagestan, and assesses the importance of the recent meeting between Dagestani authorities and an Indian delegation.
The report examines Moscow’s motivations to guarantee regional stability through investments in transport infrastructure and international cooperation. It also explores Russia’s desire to counteract the potential terrorist threat by recognising Dagestan’s historical role in resisting militant aggression, as well as its pivotal position in the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).
This report draws upon SpecialEurasia’s previous analyses, local and international media articles, and official statements.
Background Information
On September 15th, 2024, Yuri Chaika visited Dagestan and met with Sergey Melikov, the republic’s head. Their discussions covered Dagestan’s multi-vector development and implementing federal projects.
This visit coincided with the commemoration of the 25th anniversary of the defeat of militant groups in 1999, which the Russian President Vladimir Putin commemorated on September 14th, 2024, by praising the Dagestani people’s role in defending the republic. These statements reinforced the central government’s narrative of unity and support for Dagestan’s contribution to national security.
Chaika’s visit, coupled with the meeting between local Dagestani authorities and an Indian delegation in Makhachkala, occurred on September 13th, 2024, signals the growing significance of Dagestan as a strategic hub within Russia’s broader geopolitical agenda. The Indian delegation expressed interest in deepening cooperation, particularly within the context of the North-South Corridor.
Dagestan: Local Scenario
Dagestan’s geopolitical importance has increased because of its location in the North Caucasus and its access to the Caspian Sea, which plays a central role in the INSTC.
Moscow has prioritised infrastructure development in the region, particularly modernising the Makhachkala Sea Trade Port, to position Dagestan as a logistical hub linking Russia with South Asia. This strategy is part of broader efforts to shift trade away from Western markets toward emerging economies in Asia.
The Kremlin’s focus on Dagestan also involves maintaining internal stability, as evidenced by Chaika and Putin’s public recognition of the republic’s efforts to counter militant activity. Following attacks in Makhachkala and Derbent in June 2024, Moscow aims to prevent further unrest by promoting economic development and praising local resistance to extremism. This approach seeks to mitigate the appeal of jihadist ideologies, which have historically threatened the region’s security.
Regional Scenario and International Implications
Dagestan’s strategic location places it at the forefront of Russia’s foreign policy objectives, particularly regarding its proximity to the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Caspian Sea.
The INSTC, which connects Saint Petersburg with Indian markets, positions Dagestan as a critical node in Moscow’s attempts to diversify trade routes and reduce dependence on Western economies.
The republic’s involvement in these transport initiatives enhances its regional standing and strengthens Russia’s geopolitical influence in Eurasia.
Moscow’s active engagement in the North Caucasus aligns with its broader goals of maintaining stability across the region. The Kremlin has invested heavily in regional development projects, including the Caucasus Investment Forum held in Grozny, Chechnya, in July 2024, to promote foreign investment and regional integration. By fostering these connections, Moscow seeks to cement its control over the North Caucasus and ensure that no external powers challenge its influence in the region.
Conclusion
Yuri Chaika’s visit to Dagestan, alongside Putin’s remarks on the 1999 terrorist incursion, signals Moscow’s continued prioritisation of stability and economic development in the North Caucasus.
The region’s strategic importance, as showed by the recent Putin’s visit to Chechnya, North Ossetia-Alania, and Kabardino-Balkaria in August 2024, has grown amid geopolitical shifts, particularly with the INSTC and the expanding ties with India.
As Russia navigates its foreign policy in global tensions, maintaining firm control over Dagestan and fostering international cooperation remains critical for Moscow’s long-term objectives.
From the Western point of view, it should be fundamental to monitor local dynamics in the North Caucasus since its link with the South Caucasus, an area where both Washington and Brussels have paid huge attention and provided financial and political support.
In the South Caucasus, for instance, Dagestan plays a significant role in promoting Russian relations and cooperation with Azerbaijan, especially in transport and logistics. When considering the entire region, the North Caucasus serves as a Russian connecting link with the South Caucasus and, because of its proximity to the Caspian Sea, with Central Asia and Iran.
As a result, through the control of this region, the Kremlin ensures its foreign policy objectives and maintains influence over the blizhnee zarubezhe (near abroad), encompassing former Soviet republics, as well as the lebensraum (vital space) where Moscow seeks to expand its control over in order to mitigate potential foreign threats.
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