Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 46 Issue 5
Author: Silvia Boltuc
This report analyses the outcomes of the “Central Asia + Germany” summit held on September 17th, 2024, in Astana, focusing on the strategic economic, infrastructure, and security agreements reached between Central Asian countries and Germany.
The primary aim is to assess how these developments align with the geopolitical and geoeconomic interests of the countries involved in the summit, particularly in relation to energy cooperation, transport routes, and regional stability.
The report also explores Berlin’s increasing influence in Central Asia, as well as the implications for global power dynamics in the region.
Geoeconomic Priorities
Kazakhstan’s prioritisation of the Middle Corridor initiative, which aims to connect Central Asia to Europe via the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T), demonstrates a strategic Astana’s decreasing dependence on trade routes controlled by Russia and China.
Germany’s allocation of €10 billion through the Global Gateway program highlights Berlin’s intent to diversify European supply chains and counterbalance Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Positioned as a strategic logistics hub, the corridor empowers countries in Central Asia as pivotal transit points between the East and West. This program also offers the region a means to attract significant foreign investment, enhance infrastructure, and strengthen ties with the European Union.
In parallel, Uzbekistan’s call for a formal Energy Dialogue focused on low-carbon economies and green hydrogen development aligns with Europe’s energy transition goals. The proposed cooperation with German firms like Siemens, BASF, and MAN suggests an ambition to modernise industrial sectors and move towards sustainable energy sources. By diversifying away from traditional hydrocarbons, Central Asia would be able to address the economic risks presented by climate policies in Europe, while also enhancing the region’s integration into the European energy market.
Kyrgyzstan’s focus on the Kambaratin Hydro Power Plant-1 project and the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway underscores its drive to become a key player in regional energy production and infrastructure. Both projects present significant opportunities to attract investment and bolster the region’s economic stability. The railway, in particular, will play a crucial role in linking China with Europe, competing with existing northern routes through Russia. This strategic position allows Kyrgyzstan to benefit from multiple partnerships while minimising dependency on any single external power.
Geopolitical Considerations
Central Asia’s geographical positioning has long made it a contested region for global powers. Germany’s increasing engagement presents an opportunity for Central Asian republics to diversify their foreign relations and reduce over-reliance on China and Russia. For Germany, this summit reflects a strategic move to support Brussels’ regional strategy and expand its influence in an area that is critical for Eurasian connectivity and global energy supplies.
The agenda also included discussions on security concerns, specifically regarding terrorism, extremism, and cybercrime. As Germany strengthens its security cooperation, Central Asia may gain advantages in countering these threats.
Kazakhstan’s vocal support for Kyrgyzstan’s bid for a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council shows regional solidarity and a growing desire for a stronger international presence. This suggests a shift towards a more self-confident role for Central Asian nations in global diplomacy, further supported by European partnerships.
Berlin’s backing of environmental and water resource management initiatives, particularly the efforts to save the Aral Sea and develop sustainable agriculture, provides an additional layer of engagement. These initiatives not only address pressing ecological challenges but also offer an avenue for soft power projection, tying economic assistance to broader regional stability.
Strategic Outlook
The summit consolidated Germany’s role as a key economic and security partner for Central Asia. By investing in infrastructure and energy projects, Berlin is effectively positioning itself as a counterweight to both China’s BRI and Russia’s historical dominance in the region.
The cooperation with Berlin provides Central Asian states with a valuable mechanism to manoeuvre through the current Eurasian geopolitical dynamics hugely affected by the Ukraine conflict and the following the West-Russia’s confrontation. Therefore, Central Asian nations must effectively balance relations among rival powers, all the while safeguarding economic expansion and regional stability.
This deepening cooperation shows that Central Asia is becoming a more assertive player on the international stage, capitalising on its strategic location and resources to negotiate favourable partnerships with global powers.
The long-term success of these initiatives, however, will depend on the continued commitment of European actors to the region’s development and the ability of Central Asian governments to manage internal political and economic reforms.
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