Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 46 Issue 4
SpecialEurasia OSINT Unit
Executive Summary
The report analyses recent economic and security developments between Tajikistan and Pakistan, highlighting the implications of their expanding bilateral relations.
The report draws on previous analyses by SpecialEurasia, supplemented by information from local and international media sources and official statements.
Background Information
On September 12th, 2024, Tajikistan’s Minister of Economic Development and Trade, Zavqi Zavqizoda, met with Pakistan’s Minister of Commerce, Jam Kamal Khan, at the 23rd Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). The parties discussed the 62% increase in their annual foreign trade and highlighted a shared interest in diversifying trade, enhancing investment, and reinforcing security cooperation amid shared regional challenges.
Both countries have attempted to expand their economic partnership, resulting in a significant increase in trade by 62%, which amounts to USD 53 million. Tajikistan has encouraged Pakistani investments, particularly in hydroelectric power, and seeks to establish joint industrial enterprises, emphasising the textile sector. The expansion of transit routes and improved sugar imports were also part of the agenda.
Local Scenario
Tajikistan’s economic strategy focuses on reducing its dependence on traditional partners like China and Russia by diversifying its investment sources and expanding its trade relations. The call for Pakistani investment in hydroelectric power aligns with Dushanbe’s long-term goal of capitalising on its water resources to bolster national energy production.
Beyond economic interests, both Tajikistan and Pakistan share a vested interest in regional security. The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan after the U.S. troops’ withdrawal in August 2021 has raised regional concerns about the potential spread of terrorism and extremism.
The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)’s resurgence and the emergence of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Tajikistan (TTT) represent tangible security threats that could destabilise both nations. This shared security environment underpins the broader context of Tajikistan-Pakistan relations, suggesting that economic cooperation may also serve broader strategic objectives, including enhanced regional stability.
Pakistani major involvement in Tajikistan and in broader Central Asia might also reflect Islamabad’s strategy to counter New Delhi’s increasing activity in the region. As of 2024, diplomatic relations remain at a low point and both the countries are competing to acquire leverages in the Asian geopolitical scenario.
Regional Scenario
The expanding trade relationship between Tajikistan and Pakistan highlights Islamabad’s growing engagement in Central Asia, where Russia and China’s influence is prominent.
Dushanbe remains closely aligned with Moscow through the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), and it depends on Chinese investment, particularly under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Pakistan’s position reflects a similar dynamic, balancing its ties with Moscow—evidenced by ongoing trade cooperation despite Western sanctions—and its strategic alliance with China under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Closer economic and security relations between Tajikistan and Pakistan could enhance regional collaboration through organisations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). The enhanced trade turnover could serve both the EAEU and the BRI, supporting broader geopolitical ambitions in the region.
For Moscow and Beijing, Tajikistan-Pakistan cooperation contributes to their vision of a multipolar world order, where regional alliances counterbalance Western influence. Increased bilateral trade can stimulate economic development in both countries and support Russia and Beijing’s broader goal to guarantee regional stability.
Conclusion
Both Tajikistan and Pakistan are using economic cooperation as a strategic approach to address their mutual security concerns. By deepening trade ties and encouraging investment in critical sectors, Dushanbe and Islamabad aim to bolster their national economies and decrease their dependence on Russian and Chinese military and financial support.
The deepening relationship between Tajikistan and Pakistan highlights the interdependence of economic and security interests in Central and South Asia. These two nations are actors in a region that is undergoing shifts in alliances and geopolitical dynamics.
However, Dushanbe-Islamabad’s trade cooperation might impact Central Asian geopolitical dynamics since the region has witnessed rising interests from New Delhi and other international and regional actors. The security dimension of the Tajikistan-Pakistan partnership is equally significant, given their shared concerns over regional stability, particularly regarding Afghanistan. Both nations face threats from groups such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the emerging Tehrik-e-Taliban Tajikistan (TTT) as well as the Islamic State Wilayat Khorasan, which necessitates close security coordination.
For further reports, consulting, or analysis about Tajikistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia, contact us at info@specialeurasia.com and request a sample of our paid weekly monitoring report or country risk assessments.
