Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 46 Issue 1
SpecialEurasia OSINT Unit

Executive Summary

The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is nearing the final phase of its preparation for a series of joint military exercises scheduled for September and October 2024.

This report aims to detail the current state of preparedness of the CSTO’s management bodies and force formations, based on the briefing by Colonel-General Andrei Nikolaevich Serdyukov, the Chief of the CSTO Joint Staff, as well as analyses from SpecialEurasia and various media and official sources.

Key Findings

• The Collective Security Traty Organization will conduct several significant joint training exercises, including “Interaction-2024,” “Indestructible Brotherhood-2024,” and “Rubezh-2024,” focusing on enhancing operational readiness and interoperability among member states.
• The exercises will address contemporary combat challenges, incorporating lessons from recent conflicts such as the Syrian civil war and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
• International observers, including representatives from several non-CSTO countries and organisations, will participate in the training, reflecting the strategic importance and broader geopolitical implications of these exercises.

Background Information

The CSTO’s current training cycle is a culmination of extensive preparatory work, involving detailed planning and coordination among member states. The planned exercises aim to refine the operational and combat capabilities of the Collective Rapid Reaction Force (CRRF) and Collective Peacekeeping Forces (CPF). These exercises will occur in various locations, including Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan, and will engage over 5,000 personnel and 900 units of military equipment.

The primary aim of these trainings is to simulate complex operational scenarios, strengthening the ability of the organisation’s forces to effectively counter diverse threats.

Key areas of focus include air defence coordination, command-and-control systems, and integrating new military technologies such as unmanned systems and electronic warfare capabilities.

Geopolitical Context

The CSTO’s upcoming joint exercises are pivotal in reinforcing the alliance’s collective security framework. The joint activities align with the strategic objectives of member states, particularly as geopolitical tensions persist in the region. Integrating recent conflict experiences into training scenarios reflects a strategic adaptation to modern warfare challenges, ensuring that CSTO forces remain effective against growing threats.

Including international observers emphasises the organisation’s commitment to showcasing its operational capabilities and bolstering its global strategic presence. The involvement of countries like China, India, and several Middle Eastern states indicates a broader geopolitical engagement beyond the immediate CSTO sphere, influencing regional security dynamics and diplomatic relations.

In addition, the exercises will serve as a practical demonstration of the military organisation’s ability to mobilise and deploy forces effectively in response to security challenges. The comprehensive nature of the training activities, including peacekeeping and rapid reaction operations, highlights the CSTO’s commitment to maintaining regional stability and reinforcing collective defence mechanisms.

Why Does It Matter?

The forthcoming joint trainings are critical for several reasons. They provide a crucial test of the organisation’s collective defence mechanisms and interoperability among member states. Successful execution of these exercises will bolster the CSTO’s ability to address regional security threats effectively, thereby strengthening its role as a key player in Eurasian security dynamics.

In recent years, the CSTO has faced significant criticism, notably from Armenia, which has occasionally abstained from participating in joint exercises as protest against the organisation’s perceived inaction during Azerbaijan’s military incursions into Armenian territory.

Recently, Tajikistan, along with other Central Asian states, has pursued a military doctrine that balances cooperation with Russia and the CSTO while also seeking alternative partnerships, including with China and Western nations. In response to security threats from neighbouring Afghanistan, Tajikistan has notably intensified its military collaboration with the United States, reflecting a strategic diversification of its alliances.

Similarly, in the Caucasus, Armenia has bolstered its relations with the United States and NATO, despite remaining a formal member of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation. This dual approach illustrates a broader trend of regional states enhancing their security strategies through a combination of traditional alliances and new partnerships to address evolving threats and geopolitical uncertainties.

This disagreement highlights a critical challenge for the CSTO, whose principal aim is to maintain unity among its member states. The ongoing Western opposition to Russia, exemplified by the conflict in Ukraine, further complicates the CSTO’s efforts to present a cohesive front.

The organisation must not only reaffirm its internal solidarity but also demonstrate its capacity to address external threats, including terrorism and potential foreign aggression, to restore confidence among its members and enhance its strategic credibility.

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