Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 45 Issue 9
SpecialEurasia OSINT Unit
Executive Summary
The Iraqi military, in collaboration with Kurdish security forces, recently executed a successful operation in Kirkuk, dismantling two Islamic State hideouts. This operation highlights the ongoing threat posed by the Islamic State despite its official defeat in 2017.
This report aims to assess the current state of the Islamic State in Iraq and the broader implications for regional security, drawing on SpecialEurasia’s previous analyses, as well as local and international media reports and official statements.
Key Findings
- The Iraqi military and Kurdish forces continue to uncover and neutralise Islamic State hideouts, showing that the terrorist group remains an active threat in territories such as Kirkuk.
- Islamic State sleeper cells exploit security vulnerabilities in Iraq, especially in areas with ethnic and political tensions, perpetuating instability in the region.
- The persistence of terrorist organisations contribute to a complex security environment in Iraq, challenging both national and regional stability.
Background Information
On August 26th, 2024, the Iraqi military, in cooperation with Kurdish security forces, located and destroyed two Islamic State hideouts in the Leilan subdistrict of Kirkuk province.
This operation, a result of joint intelligence efforts by the Military Intelligence Directorate and the Sulaymaniyah Security Directorate, also led to the seizure of explosives and military equipment.
This action followed a similar operation in Salahaddin province, where Iraqi Air Force strikes destroyed three additional Islamic State hideouts, eliminating several combatants.
Geopolitical Scenario
The ongoing activities of the Islamic State in Iraq, particularly in the provinces of Kirkuk and Salahaddin, highlight the persistent nature of the group’s insurgency. Despite losing territorial control, the terrorist organisation has adapted by establishing sleeper cells and exploiting the fragmented security environment in disputed areas. These regions, characterised by ethnic and political tensions, provide fertile ground to recruit and maintain the terrorist group’s influence.
The current security situation in Iraq continues to be fragile, as the Islamic State exploits the absence of unified security efforts in contested regions. The group’s ability to operate relatively freely in these areas suggests that ongoing sectarian and ethnic divisions have hampered the Iraqi government’s efforts to fully eradicate. US Department of Defence’s Report on Terrorism 2022, which warns of a potential Islamic State resurgence, further emphasises the need for vigilance and robust counter-terrorism strategies.
Iraqi and international authorities cannot overstate the regional implications of the activities of the Islamic State. The Kurdistan region, in particular, remains vulnerable because of its proximity to conflict zones and the ongoing presence of terrorist elements.
While Kurdish forces, with international support, have successfully repelled the Islamic Sate advances in the past, the potential for a resurgence poses a continuous threat. The ideological remnants, coupled with the group’s adaptive insurgency tactics, require constant monitoring and response from both local and international actors.
Iraq: Risk Assessment
Iraq’s internal security remains at a high risk, especially in disputed territories where Islamic State sleeper cells are still active. The potential for the Islamic State to exploit security gaps in these regions presents a persistent threat that could destabilise the country further.
The risk of the Islamic State resurgence in Iraq also poses a threat to international security, considering the fragile situation in the Middle East caused by the situation in the Gaza Strip and Israel-Iran’s recent escalation.
A weakened or destabilised Iraq could become a breeding ground for extremist groups, leading to an increase in terrorist activities both within the region and globally.
If you require additional information and consultation regarding terrorist threats and activities in Iraq, please do not hesitate to contact us at info@specialeurasia.com and inquire about our monitoring report service.
