Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 45 Issue 6
SpecialEurasia OSINT Unit
Executive Summary
The Taliban’s recent military parade at Bagram airbase, commemorating the third anniversary of their takeover, highlights their effort to consolidate power and assert their dominance following the US withdrawal.
This report evaluates the implications of these celebrations amid persistent security threats from groups like the Islamic State Wilayat Khorasan (ISKP) and assesses the Taliban’s ability to maintain stability in Afghanistan.
This analysis relies on SpecialEurasia’s previous reports, complemented by local and international media and official sources.
Key Findings
- The Taliban’s parade at Bagram, featuring both Soviet-era and US-made military equipment, underscores their narrative of triumph over foreign forces.
- Despite the Taliban’s claims of ensuring security and stability within Afghanistan, the ongoing threat from ISKP and other militant groups poses a challenge.
- The strained relationship between the Taliban and Pakistan, exacerbated by the Taliban’s support for the Tehrik-e Taliban (TTP), adds complexity to regional stability and security dynamics.
Background Information
On August 15th, 2024, the Taliban celebrated the third anniversary of their return to power with a military parade at Bagram airbase, once a major US operational hub. The event marked the fall of Kabul and the end of the US-led military campaign, featuring Soviet-era military hardware alongside US-made vehicles left behind during the chaotic withdrawal. This display should symbolise the Taliban’s victory and resilience.
Despite these assertions of power, the Taliban faces significant challenges. The Islamic State Wilayat Khorasan (ISKP) continues to promote its jihadist propaganda and conduct violent attacks, undermining the Taliban’s claims of establishing security. This persistent threat reflects the Taliban’s struggle to control the country and secure its borders effectively.
Analysis
The Bagram parade serves as a potent symbol of the Taliban’s perceived victory over the United States and its allies. By using captured military equipment from both Soviet and US eras, the Taliban underlined their narrative of resisting foreign intervention. However, this show of strength also highlights a deeper struggle within the Taliban to assert their control over Afghanistan amid ongoing security challenges.
The persistent threat from ISKP demonstrates the Taliban’s difficulties in maintaining internal stability. Despite their efforts to portray themselves as capable rulers, the ongoing terrorist activities of ISKP reveal significant gaps in the Taliban’s ability to provide security. This situation could undermine their legitimacy both domestically and internationally.
The Taliban’s strained relationship with Pakistan, particularly concerning the support for the TTP, further complicates their ability to manage regional stability. TTP’s activities, which have also brought attention to the Taliban’s struggle to control extremist factions in their territory, have worsened border tensions.
Why Does It Matter?
The Taliban’s inability to effectively counter ISKP’s insurgency poses a serious risk to the country’s stability. Challenging the authority of the Taliban, the group’s persistent attacks also carry the potential to destabilise key regions. The Taliban’s failure to address these security concerns may lead to further violence and undermine their governance.
The strained relations with Pakistan, compounded by the Taliban’s support for the TTP, pose additional risks. Cross-border tensions and frequent clashes could escalate, potentially drawing Pakistan into a more active role in the conflict. This dynamic could destabilise the region further and impact broader geopolitical interests.
The Taliban’s display of military strength at the Bagram base was more a show than a picture of the country’s actual situation. While commemorating the third anniversary of the Taliban’s rule through a military parade might bolster the interim government’s narrative and communication, the ongoing terrorist threat and worsening relations with neighbouring Pakistan, a former staunch ally of the Taliban, could exacerbate the country’s instability.
For further reports and consultation about Afghanistan, please contact SpecialEurasia at info@specialeurasia.com.
