Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 45 Issue 5
SpecialEurasia OSINT Unit

Executive Summary

Kazakhstan’s 2024 military modernisation initiatives significantly enhance its defence capabilities, reflecting concerns over internal stability and regional security. The country’s efforts include advanced procurements and comprehensive upgrades, which could alter Central Asia’s military balance.

We based this report on the SpecialEurasia database and previous investigations linked with local media articles.

Background Information

In 2024, Kazakhstan’s defence sector is undergoing a major upgrade, reflecting a comprehensive strategy to strengthen national security. Key developments include:

• Ground Forces: Introduction of modern armoured vehicles such as “Arlan” and “Cobra II” to enhance unit mobility and security.
• Unmanned Technologies: Integration of tactical UAVs like “SUNQAR” and mini-systems “EVOMax,” bolstering intelligence and surveillance operations.
• Aerospace Forces: Plans to acquire advanced fighters and high-accuracy anti-aircraft missile systems. Testing of the ANKA heavy drone and procurement of A400M heavy transport aircraft.
• Naval Forces: Acquisition of a fireproof boat to protect coastal areas.
• Modernisation Program: Ongoing upgrades to existing equipment, with over 1,500 units repaired and specialised workshops established for a wide range of military assets.
• Educational Development: Enhancement of training facilities with new simulators and updated polygon equipment, aiming to improve the quality of military personnel training.

Kazakhstan’s integrated approach, combining new acquisitions with modernisation and improved training, marks a significant leap in its defence capabilities, positioning the country to better address both internal and regional security challenges.

Kazakhstan: Scenario Context

Kazakhstan, a key Central Asian state, has historically maintained a moderate defence posture, relying on its strategic partnership with Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) for security guarantees.

However, the unrest that occurred in Kazakhstan in January 2022, characterised by extensive protests and subsequent intervention from CSTO forces, revealed weaknesses in the country’s internal security infrastructure. The government’s response has raised awareness of its need for external support in addressing significant internal crises, prompting questions about its capacity to ensure domestic stability on its own.

The planned military upgrades in 2024 suggest a strategic shift toward bolstering self-reliance in defence. Astana’s acquisition of modern armoured vehicles, UAVs, advanced fighters, and anti-aircraft systems, alongside the upgrading of existing assets, indicates a broader effort to mitigate future internal threats and enhance the nation’s autonomous defence capabilities.

Why Does It Matter?

Kazakhstan’s military modernisation is pivotal for both national security and regional stability. By enhancing its military capacity, Astana aims to reduce its dependence on external security arrangements, particularly with Russia, and better manage potential internal disruptions, such as those experienced in 2022. The bolstered capabilities could deter internal dissent by projecting a more robust state power, potentially dissuading foreign-backed or domestic insurgents.

However, this military build-up could also affect Central Asia’s delicate geopolitical balance. The region already faces significant challenges, including disputes over water resources and border security.

Kazakhstan’s enhanced military posture may provoke an arms race or increase tensions among neighbouring countries, particularly if Astana is perceived as asserting dominance or preparing for cross-border conflicts.

Additionally, the expansion of Kazakh defence capabilities could be seen as a response to rising threats from terrorist groups in nearby Afghanistan and the broader region. Indeed, only in the last two months, Kazakhstan’s National Security Committee (KNB), in coordination with local police and the prosecutor’s office, conducted counter-terrorism operations in Astana, Almaty, and the West Kazakhstan regions.

This indicates a shift in the Central Asian republic’s security focus from purely domestic issues to broader regional security concerns.

To obtain additional reports and consultation regarding the military sector in Kazakhstan and Central Asia, please contact us at info@specialeurasia.com.