Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 45 Issue 2
SpecialEurasia OSINT Unit

Introduction

This report evaluates the state of water security and energy cooperation in Central Asia. It underscores the importance of these issues within the region’s foreign policy agendas, given the growing environmental challenges and socio-economic demands.

The report assesses existing regional cooperation structures, bilateral initiatives, joint ventures, and proposals like the Water-Energy Consortium. It also discusses the implications of Russia’s involvement in these dynamics.

The analysis is based on SpecialEurasia’s previous reports and data collected, information and sources from international and local media agencies and data from regional agreements, national policies, and expert forecasts.

Key Points

• Central Asia faces significant challenges related to water security and energy cooperation, driven by shared water resources and increasing energy needs.
• Central Asian nations are prioritising water and energy issues in their foreign policy agendas because of their impact on regional stability and economic development.
• Several cooperative frameworks and initiatives are in place to address both immediate needs and long-term sustainability of water and energy resources.

Geopolitical Scenario

This section investigates the current Central Asian geopolitical dynamics related to water and energy cooperation.

• Existing Regional Cooperation Structures. The Interstate Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia (ICWC), established in 1992, remains central to regional water management. The multilateral commission, which includes all Central Asian countries, coordinates water allocation, especially in times of urgency. The ICWC’s ongoing operations underscore the necessity of a coordinated approach to managing scarce water resources.
• Bilateral Initiatives. Central Asia has seen significant bilateral initiatives aimed at enhancing water and energy cooperation. Notably, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are modernising hydroposts along their border for better water flow measurements. Similarly, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan are discussing joint efforts in constructing the Kambarata Hydropower Plant-1, reflecting a commitment to cooperation in addressing water and energy challenges.
• Formation of Joint Ventures. As part of the Kambarata Hydropower Plant-1 project, involved countries plan to establish a joint-stock company. Kyrgyzstan will hold 34% of the shares, while Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will each hold 33%. This venture not only strengthens economic ties but also fosters a more integrated regional energy strategy. If this project succeeds, it could establish a standard for future collaborations in Central Asia.
• Water-Energy Consortium Proposal. In 2023, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev proposed the creation of a Water-Energy Consortium to address the Aral Sea’s ecological issues. Supported by the Eurasian Development Bank, this initiative has the potential to provide regional solutions to complex water and energy problems. According to analysts, the urgent establishment of the consortium is imperative, as chronic water shortages may arise by 2028 because of climate change and escalating demand.

Strategic Summary

The Water-Energy Consortium proposal presents a holistic approach that combines water-intensive industries and energy policies. Central Asian countries must prioritise the alignment of their water management policies and the adoption of water-saving technologies. The integration holds significant importance, particularly considering the potential benefits associated with the development of energy infrastructure, including nuclear energy, to diversify the region’s energy balance. Russia’s involvement in regional water-energy dynamics might further complicate the cooperation landscape, but also underscores the strategic importance of these resources.

Central Asia: Risk Scenarios

• Negative Scenario: Increased Regional Tensions. Failure to establish effective water and energy cooperation could exacerbate regional tensions, leading to conflicts over resource allocation. Lack of progress on joint projects might strain relations further. Predicted water shortages by 2028 could cause severe socio-economic disruptions, pushing nations to prioritise national interests over regional cooperation, resulting in increased competition for resources and potential regional destabilisation.
• Positive Scenario: Successful Regional Integration. Successful implementation of cooperative initiatives could lead to a more integrated and stable Central Asia. Establishing the Water-Energy Consortium and completing joint projects could set a positive precedent for future collaborations. Enhanced regional cooperation could mitigate water shortages and promote sustainable development, fostering economic growth and geopolitical stability. In this scenario, Central Asian countries would become a model for regional cooperation in managing complex water and energy challenges.

Conclusion

Central Asia is at a pivotal point in managing its water and energy resources. Despite strides in fostering cooperation, significant challenges remain. The imminent water crisis underscores the importance of comprehensive and collaborative solutions. In order for the proposed Water-Energy Consortium to succeed, it is crucial that all parties involved show the political will and commitment. Central Asia’s stability and prosperity will be affected by the choices made in the coming years.

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