Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 45 Issue 3
Author: Giuliano Bifolchi

Introduction

This report assesses security developments and counter-terrorism in Tajikistan, focusing on the first half of 2024. It highlights the security implications of rising extremist activities, particularly the influence of the Islamic State Wilayat Khorasan (ISKP), Al-Qaeda, and also Tehrik-e-Taliban Tajikistan, compounded by internal challenges such as political repression, ethnic tensions, and economic instability. The report also examines Dushanbe’s strategic alliances with Moscow and Beijing, and Western countries in countering these threats.

The report utilises SpecialEurasia’s previous reports and data collected alongside information published by local and national media outlets and on social media platforms.

Key Points

• Tajikistan is dealing with significant internal and external security challenges, exacerbated by the rise of extremist groups and domestic issues.
• The release of the first Tajik version of the Islamic State’s magazine, Voice of Khorasan, highlights the persistent threat of extremist propaganda targeting Tajik citizens.
• Tajikistan’s success in counter-terrorism efforts will depend on balancing strategic alliances and addressing internal vulnerabilities.

Geopolitical Scenario

This section reviews Dushanbe’s internal and external security challenges in the first half of 2024 and their impact on the country’s stability.

• Internal Challenges. The government’s authoritarian policies, economic struggles, and ethnic tensions create an environment conducive to extremist ideologies. The oppression of political opponents and religious groups intensifies discontent among the people. The Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO) is a critical area of concern, where ethnic minorities such as the Pamiri people feel marginalised, leading to potential radicalisation.
• External Threats. The situation in Afghanistan heavily influenced Tajik security. With the Taliban’s control, extremist groups like the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda have become more emboldened, resulting in a rise in their activities in the region. The first edition of ISKP Voice of Khurasan in the Tajik language underscored the terrorist organisation’s aim to recruit from within the Central Asian republic and disrupt the government. This propaganda poses a significant threat to Tajikistan’s internal stability.
• Strategic Alliances. Strategic alliances with Russia and China shape Tajikistan’s geopolitical landscape. Russia provides military support and training, while China invests in infrastructure and economic development. Dushanbe also seeks to diversify its partnerships by engaging with Western countries, which introduces potential geopolitical tensions. The country’s reliance on these alliances highlights the importance of developing a robust domestic security apparatus to address internal threats.

Strategic Summary

Despite significant challenges, Tajikistan’s strategic alliances provide critical support. Moscow’s military presence and Beijing’s economic investments are vital for maintaining stability. However, to avoid geopolitical tensions, Tajikistan needs to carefully manage the diversification of partnerships with Western countries. The government’s authoritarian tactics in dealing with political and religious differences may unintentionally push more people towards radicalisation, emphasising the importance of a well-rounded counter-terrorism strategy.

Tajikistan: Terrorism and Risk Scenarios

Based on the data and information we collected, distilled, and analysed, we elaborated on the following scenarios:

• Negative Scenario: Escalating Internal Instability and Extremism. Tajikistan fails to address internal challenges, leading to increased instability and rising extremism. Continued repression exacerbates public discontent, particularly among marginalised communities in GBAO. Extremist groups exploit these grievances, increasing recruitment and propaganda efforts. This situation has the potential to lead to increased violence, which could weaken the government’s authority and put a strain on international relations.

• Geopolitical Dynamics Scenario: Balancing International Relations Amidst External Threats. By leveraging partnerships with Russia, China, and the West, Dushanbe enhances security capabilities. To effectively handle these goals, Tajikistan needs to maintain a nuanced foreign policy that strikes a delicate balance between the interests of powerful allies and the need to uphold our sovereignty and security. Conversely, the interests of regional and international actors could influence Tajikistan’s domestic politics and potentially cause internal problems that could destabilise the country.

• Positive Scenario: Enhanced Stability Through Socio-Economic Development. Tajikistan successfully implements socio-economic initiatives and political reforms, reducing extremism drivers. Economic growth and improved governance in marginalised regions decrease radicalisation, fostering inclusivity and respect for civil liberties. This leads to enhanced internal stability and stronger international partnerships, contributing to resilience against extremist influences.

For further reports and consulting about Tajikistan’s struggle against terrorist threats and geopolitical dynamics in Central Asia, contact us at info@specialeurasia.com.