Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 45 Issue 1
Author: Giuliano Bifolchi
Introduction
This report examines the reactions of various terrorist organisations to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, killed in Tehran on July 31st, 2024.
The report’s purpose is to offer a comprehensive examination of the immediate responses exhibited by significant terrorist organisations, appraise their potential strategic manoeuvres, and forecast the broader consequences for regional security.
For this report, we sourced data from the SpecialEurasia database and open sources, including international and local media, social media accounts, and the portal Jihadology.
Key Points
- The Middle East remains highly unstable considering the reactions of several terrorist organisations after Hamas political leader’s assassination.
- Haniyeh’s assassination may cause increased militant activities, further destabilisation of the region, and potentially a broader conflict involving multiple state and non-state actors.
Scenario Context
On July 31st, 2024, Israeli forces conducted a targeted strike on Ismail Haniyeh’s residence in Tehran, resulting in the killing of the Hamas political leader and his bodyguard. Haniyeh was in Tehran for the inauguration of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian.
The assassination, executed by Israeli intelligence, is part of Tel Aviv’s broader strategy to disrupt Hamas’ leadership after the events happened on October 7th, 2023. Recent Israeli operations have also targeted senior Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon. Haniyeh and Hezbollah leader’s assassinations have made more unstable the situation in the Middle East, causing heightened fears of widespread conflict and humanitarian crises.
Haniyeh’s killing has had an immediate and profound impact on the international stage. Condemnations from countries such as Turkey, Russia, and China underline the broader geopolitical ramifications of the assassination. Regional experts warn that this Israeli operation could further destabilise the Middle East, a region already fraught with conflict and political turmoil.
Analysis and Key Commitments
Various terrorist organisations have expressed intense reactions to the assassination of Haniyeh, with each condemning the act and affirming their commitment to persist in resistance against Israel and its allies. These groups view Haniyeh’s death not only as a significant loss but also as a rallying point to intensify their activities.
Al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS). AQIS expressed profound sorrow over Haniyeh’s death, viewing it as part of a broader jihad against infidels. They highlighted the martyrdom of previous jihad leaders and reinforced their commitment to global jihad, urging attacks on Israel and its principal supporter, the United States. AQIS emphasised such incidents strengthen their resolve and fuel the jihad movement. The statement from AQIS highlighted the continuity and resilience of the jihadist movement despite the loss of key leaders. By drawing parallels with past martyrdoms, AQIS aims to inspire its followers to persist in their struggle, framing Haniyeh’s death as a catalyst for renewed vigour and commitment.
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The Taliban lamented Haniyeh’s death, recognising his significant contributions to the Palestinian resistance. They condemned Israel’s actions as crimes against humanity and reiterated their support for Hamas and the Palestinian cause, urging increased efforts within the Islamic and Arab worlds to counter Israeli aggression.
The Taliban’s response highlighted their ideological alignment with Hamas and underscored their broader jihadist agenda. The Taliban aims to legitimise their actions and gain more support from the Muslim community by presenting their support for Hamas as both an Islamic obligation and a humanitarian duty.
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). TTP expressed deep sorrow over Hamas political leader’s assassination, praising his lifelong dedication to the Palestinian cause and praying for his exaltation in paradise. They viewed his death as a loss to the Islamic community and a call to continue their resistance against oppressors. TTP’s message stressed the shared struggle and solidarity among jihadist groups. By honouring Haniyeh’s contributions and sacrifices, TTP aims to bolster morale and reaffirm their commitment to the jihadist cause, presenting a united front against perceived enemies.
Jaish al-Adl. Jaish al-Adl condemned the assassination, highlighting the plight of the Palestinian people and expressing solidarity with their struggle. They criticised the attack as a criminal act and a significant loss for those fighting oppression. The group focused on the broader implications of the assassination, framing it as part of a larger pattern of oppression against Muslims. Their goal is to garner support and draw attention to the urgency of their cause by accentuating the criminal nature of the act.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). HTS extended condolences to the people of Gaza, the Hamas movement, and the Haniyeh family. They praised Haniyeh’s efforts and reaffirmed their commitment to the Palestinian cause. HTS’s statement underscored their ideological alignment with Hamas and their broader jihadist objectives. By expressing solidarity and offering condolences, HTS seeks to strengthen alliances and reinforce their commitment to the jihadist struggle.
Terrorist and Extremist Actors’ Description
- Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS). AQIS, a branch of Al-Qaeda, aims to establish an Islamic state in the Indian Subcontinent, targeting governments in Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, Myanmar, and Bangladesh, and has declared intentions to attack American interests in the region.
- Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The Taliban, ruling Afghanistan as the Islamic Emirate, advocate for strict Sharia law and have a history of supporting various jihadist movements, including those in Palestine.
- Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). TTP is an umbrella organisation of militant groups operating along the Afghan-Pakistani border, sharing ideological ties with the Afghan Taliban but maintaining separate command structures.
- Jaish al-‘Adl. Jaish al-Adl is a Baloch Sunni Salafi jihadist group operating in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan Province, primarily targeting Iranian security forces.
- Hayat Tahrit al-Sham (HTS). HTS is a Sunni Islamist militant group involved in the Syrian Civil War, with significant influence in the Idlib province.
Strategic Summary
The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh has fortified the resolve of various terrorist organisations, each reaffirming their commitment to jihad against Israel and its allies. The military capabilities and influence of these groups differ, and their reactions suggest the potential for increased militant activities and collaboration.
Critical Locations and Resources
- Israel: Faces threats from multiple fronts, including Gaza (Hamas), Lebanon (Hezbollah), and potential lone-wolf attacks inspired by global jihadist rhetoric. The country’s security apparatus is on high alert, anticipating retaliatory strikes and increased militant activities.
- Gaza Strip: Hamas remains a central figure, with potential for retaliatory strikes against Israeli targets. The organisation’s infrastructure and resources, including tunnels and weapon caches, will play a crucial role in their response strategy.
- Afghanistan and Pakistan: TTP and Taliban hold significant operational capabilities, with potential cross-border implications for regional stability. Their extensive networks and resources enable them to conduct coordinated attacks and support other jihadist movements.
- Sistan and Baluchestan: Jaish al-Adl’s operations could intensify against Iranian targets, contributing to regional instability. The group’s strategic location near the porous border with Pakistan facilitates their operations and enables them to evade Iranian security forces.
Outlook
There is an increased threat of coordinated attacks targeting Israeli and Western interests. The Middle Eastern geopolitical dynamics in the region may shift, with increased involvement from state actors supporting various militant groups. Immediate ramifications will encompass an upsurge in violence and retaliatory actions, whereas subsequent outcomes may encompass wider regional conflicts and humanitarian emergencies.
The reactions from various terrorist organisations show a unified stance against Israel and its allies. This unity could lead to collaborative efforts, amplifying the impact of their operations. The strategic use of martyrdom narratives serves to inspire and mobilise supporters, potentially leading to an influx of recruits and resources.
Final Assessment
Current trends and the reactions of key militant groups show the region is on the brink of a period of intensified conflict and instability. Haniyeh’s assassination serves as a rallying point for jihadist movements, leading to a more united and aggressive front against Israel and its allies. Continued monitoring of militant activities and strategic developments in the region is essential for anticipating future threats and planning effective countermeasures.
The international community must be vigilant in addressing the root causes of instability and supporting efforts to de-escalate tensions. Diplomatic engagement and targeted counter-terrorism measures will be crucial in mitigating the risks of a broader conflict. The coming months will be critical in shaping the future trajectory of the Middle East, with significant implications for global security and stability.
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