Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 44 Issue 7
Author: Giuliano Bifolchi

Executive Summary

Some sources indicate that terrorists, trained in a specialised UAV centre in Kunduz, Afghanistan, plan to execute attacks during the 2024 Paris Olympics. The existing threat of “drone jihad”, potentially involving graduates from the centre already present in Europe, requires urgent and stringent counterterrorism measures.

Background Information

According to the Russian media agency Nezavisimaja Gazeta, citing a confidential source, in Kunduz, Northern Afghanistan, al-Qaeda operates a UAV training centre where also Islamic State Wilayat Khorasan (ISKP) fighters attended courses.

The Kunduz drone training centre operates with Al-Qaeda’s oversight, with Hamza bin Laden, the son of Osama bin Laden, directly involved. This centre leverages techniques from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and earlier Islamic State tactics used in Iraq and Syria in 2015/2016.

According to the source, a former officer from the Ministry of Internal Affairs of a Central Asian republic, who staged his own death and moved to Northern Afghanistan, currently supervises the training operations in Kunduz. The Taliban, having knowledge of these activities, have not intervened in order to preserve their positive relations with Al-Qaeda, disregarding the involvement of ISKP.

According to reports, individuals who have graduated from this centre have successfully got legal status in multiple countries, such as Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and various European nations. Some of them may be now in France, potentially planning UAV-based attacks for the Olympics.

In Afghanistan, Taliban forces utilise Chinese-made drones for surveillance and sabotage. Drug trafficking organisations also employ UAVs for cross-border narcotic transport and might leverage the Kunduz training centre for their drone operations.

French intelligence has recently detained several suspects in Paris, showcasing the serious threat to the national security, especially during the Olympic Games. The risk remains, particularly from “lone wolves” who can operate autonomously with improvised devices.

Risk Scenario

The potential impact on Eurasian security from this “drone jihad” is significant. The convergence of traditional militant tactics and advanced technology gives rise to a fresh threat posed by terrorists trained in UAV operations.

The risk to the Paris Olympics includes potential mass casualties, widespread panic, and substantial disruptions, undermining confidence in international security efforts.

Beyond the immediate threat to France, there is a broader implication for Eurasian stability. Nations in Central Asia and Europe face an escalated peril of terrorist attacks utilising drones, which demands the implementation of more stringent security measures and the promotion of international cooperation.

The proliferation of drone technology among terrorist groups complicates traditional counterterrorism strategies. The ability of these groups to operate across borders, coupled with the Taliban’s tacit approval and involvement of drug trafficking networks, further destabilises the region.

In the short term, the immediate threat to the Olympics requires focused countermeasures. In the long term, mitigating the risks associated with UAV-based terrorism requires the implementation of adaptive strategies, technological countermeasures, and ongoing international collaboration.

Conclusion

• Although there are just a few sources reporting this information, and we need to investigate more to corroborate the information provided, we cannot underestimate the significant threat coming.
• Since only Russian media reported about “drone jihad” against France, we might consider this information within the framework of strategic communication and the ongoing confrontation between Paris and Moscow.
• Recently, French institutions have denounced Moscow’s attempts to destabilise the country’s security situation and society through AI media campaigns and intelligence operations, particularly in the context of the recent French elections and the ongoing Olympic Games.
• Afghanistan proves increasingly to be a hotspot for terrorist organisations, especially Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.
• Despite the Taliban’s claims since their rise to power in August 2021 of their ability to control the country and guarantee national and regional security, the rise of terrorist activities within Afghan territory contradicts this narrative.
• Using “jihad drones” represents a significant evolution in terrorism strategies, combining advanced technology with traditional militant tactics, posing a substantial threat to international security.

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