In an interview conducted on Thursday, July 7th, 2024, Giuliano Bifolchi, SpecialEurasia Research Manager, shared his insights with Emanuele Landi of Cusano News7 concerning the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, focusing primarily on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the potential for increased hostilities in Lebanon.
Bifolchi emphasised that the geopolitical risk in the region has markedly intensified following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7th, 2023. In response, Israel deployed its troops to the Gaza Strip, aiming to rescue hostages and eliminate the militant groups Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. This Israeli military manoeuvre underscores a significant escalation in the conflict, highlighting the complexity and volatility of the situation.
Discussing the prospects for a truce, Giuliano Bifolchi indicated that although a ceasefire is not beyond the realm of possibility, it remains challenging because of the entrenched positions of both Israel and Hamas.
Hamas considered the October 2023 attack a major victory following what the Islamic Resistance Movements view as years of Israeli oppression towards Palestinians. Hamas sees the subsequent Israeli military operations as additional evidence supporting their belief that Israel aims to eradicate the Palestinian population.
Conversely, from Tel Aviv’s perspective, Israel maintains its stance on the necessity of protecting its citizens from external threats originating from Palestinian territories, justifying their military actions as a defence mechanism.
Bifolchi also addressed the potential for an escalation between Israel and Lebanon considering the recent confrontation between the parties and following the Israel Defence Forces’ killing of a senior Hezbollah commander. This incident provoked a retaliatory response from Hezbollah, with rockets targeting Israeli territory.
SpecialEurasia Research Manager stressed that preventing further escalation is crucial. He noted that, given the regional geopolitics, Israel sees the creation of buffer zones between its borders and those of Lebanon and the Gaza Strip as essential to mitigating future attacks similar to those of October 2023.
In the broader regional context, Giuliano Bifolchi highlighted the significance of the upcoming U.S. presidential elections. The recent debate illuminated President Biden’s perceived vulnerabilities, corroborating exit polls that suggest a potential victory for Donald Trump. Bifolchi noted that a Trump administration would likely offer unwavering support to Israel against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, as Trump himself has stated. This potential shift in U.S. foreign policy could have profound implications, potentially exacerbating conflicts and further destabilising the region.
Overall, Giuliano Bifolchi’s analysis underscores the precarious nature of the Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape, where local conflicts have far-reaching implications, influenced by both regional dynamics and international political developments.
For further reports, risk assessment, and consulting services about the geopolitics of the Middle East, contact us at info@specialeurasia.com.
