Silvia Boltuc, Managing Director of SpecialEurasia, recently provided an interview on Radar, a TV programme of Cusano News7, hosted by Flavio Tassotti. The discussion centred on the recent presidential elections in Iran and the political situation in Armenia, offering a comprehensive analysis of these complex geopolitical issues.
Analysis of Iranian Presidential Elections
High Percentage of Abstentionism. Silvia Boltuc addressed the significant abstention rate in the recent Iranian presidential elections, a phenomenon that international media largely attributed to widespread disappointment and distrust among Iranian citizens. Boltuc presented also an alternative perspective, noting that the unexpected nature of these elections, precipitated by the tragic death of former President Ebrahim Raisi, left a considerable portion of the electorate unprepared to make informed decisions about the candidates. This lack of preparedness contributed to the high abstention rate.
Second Term Elections. As Iran prepares for a second round of elections scheduled for Friday, July 5th, 2024, Boltuc anticipates that there might be a slight increase in voter turnout. With more information now available about the two main contenders—reformist-backed Masoud Pezeshkian and hardliner Saeed Jalili—voters are expected to be better informed. The success of Pezeshkian might encourage some undecided reformists to go to the polls. The recent Trump-Biden U.S. presidential debate also plays a pivotal role in shaping Iranian voter behaviour. Boltuc suggested that the potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, which would likely herald a tougher stance against Iran, might push voters towards Jalili. In such a scenario, Jalili is perceived as a strong leader capable of countering U.S. threats.
Domestic Political Dynamics. Boltuc elaborated on the intricate landscape of Iranian domestic politics, characterised by multiple power centres whose support is crucial for the future president. She highlighted the disparity in financial backing between the candidates and noted an increase in the directness and activity of their campaigns compared to the first electoral round. This heightened engagement reflects the intensified competition and the stakes involved in the second round of elections.
Political Situation in Armenia
Protests Against Pashinyan’s Government. In the second segment of the interview, Silvia Boltuc shifted focus to Armenia, after SpecialEurasia official visit to Yerevan, discussing the ongoing protests against Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government. These protests, led by the “Tavush for the Homeland” Movement, stem from dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh issue and peace negotiation with Azerbaijan. Boltuc explained that Pashinyan has historically had controversial relations with the former leadership in Stepanakert, contributing to the unrest. Contrary to some interpretations, Boltuc clarified that the protests are not driven by Armenia’s desire to align more closely with the Russian Federation, although a segment of the population remains pro-Moscow.
Armenia’s Western Aspirations. Despite Armenia’s apparent shift towards the West and aspirations to join the European Union, Boltuc expressed concerns about the potential risks associated with this new direction in Armenian foreign policy. She cautioned that recent geopolitical dynamics in the Caucasus might hinder the realisation of these aspirations, leading to unfavourable outcomes for Armenia.
Criticism of Pashinyan’s Peace Efforts. Boltuc also highlighted the criticism directed at Pashinyan for his government’s attempts to secure peace with Azerbaijan at any cost. A portion of the Armenian populace perceives these efforts as overly conciliatory, accusing the government of making significant concessions to Baku without adequate guarantees. This approach, critics argue, could further expose Armenia to Azerbaijan’s military power and territorial ambitions, undermining the country’s security and sovereignty.
Conclusion
Silvia Boltuc’s interview with Flavio Tassotti provided a nuanced analysis of the recent presidential elections in Iran and the political situation in Armenia. Her insights into voter behaviour, domestic political dynamics, and the geopolitical challenges facing both countries underscore the complexity of these issues.
For further information, reports, and consulting about Iran and Armenia, contact us at info@specialeurasia.com.
