Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 42 Issue 12
SpecialEurasia OSINT Unit

Executive Summary

The meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping is of paramount importance in the current international landscape. Despite the regularity of their encounters, this visit holds unique significance, because both Moscow and Beijing want to send a powerful message to the international community about their enduring strategic partnership amidst global challenges.

Key areas of focus include diplomatic reciprocity, economic collaboration amidst Western pressure, responses to global instability, tensions with the West, discussions on the emerging world order, and enhancing people-to-people ties.

While expectations should remain realistic and, in geopolitics, two countries which share borders and the same area of interest can collide, the current Western pressure against Russia and China might be a stabilising factor in their bilateral relations.

Key Judgments

1. Diplomatic Reciprocity. Putin’s visit reciprocates Xi Jinping’s gesture of making Moscow his first foreign visit after re-election.
2. Economic Collaboration. Western sanctions against Moscow because of the Ukraine conflict and Washington-Beijing’s confrontation in Asia-Pacific have pushed Russia and China to increase their efforts to enhance Russian-Chinese economic interactions, with a target of $280-290 billion bilateral trade by year-end.
3. Global Instability. The Ukraine conflict, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the rise of terrorism, especially the Islamic State, and the fragile and unstable situation in the Sahel and the Red Sea, are the major signs of global instability and threats to international business and security that Moscow and Beijing want to address by implementing BRICS alliance and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
4. Tensions with the West. Amid continuous accusation against recent elections in Russia and China’s support of Moscow during the Ukraine conflict, Putin and Xi Jinping’s meeting stressed how the Kremlin and Beijing might behave in the face of European and the United States pressure.
5. Emerging World Order: Putin and Xi explored the desirable role of the UN system, strategic stability, and international governance, aligning views while acknowledging differences.

Putin and Xi Jinping’s Meeting: Scenario Analysis

The meeting between Putin and Xi Jinping represents a pivotal point in the changing geopolitical landscape. As both leaders deal with the challenges of global power dynamics, their agreement on important issues creates opportunities for strategic collaboration. However, beneath the surface of diplomatic niceties lie deeper considerations that underscore the intricacies of the Russian-Chinese relationship.

One key factor in the analysis deals with the economic cooperation amid Western pressure. The bilateral trade relationship between Russia and China has flourished in recent years, reaching historic highs.

Western sanctions cast a significant shadow, presenting obstacles to long-term growth. Consequently, both Moscow and Beijing have relied on strategies that seek to mitigate the impact of sanctions, diversify trade routes, and enhance financial cooperation.

The meeting provides an opportunity to address global instability and regional conflicts. The BRICS alliance and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) serve as platforms for collaboration on security and stability issues.

Against the backdrop of ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Africa, Putin and Xi Jinping must assess the efficacy of existing mechanisms and explore avenues for enhanced cooperation. The implications of rising defence spending and arms trade for regional and global security cause a concerted response from Moscow and Beijing.

Diplomatic manoeuvring vis-à-vis the West constitutes another critical dimension. Both leaders must contend with shifting dynamics in Europe and the United States, where strategic recalibrations are underway. While Putin remains sceptical of European claims to “strategic autonomy,” Xi Jinping seeks to cultivate deeper ties with major European powers. Balancing divergent interests and maintaining a united front against external pressures will require deft diplomacy and strategic foresight.

The emerging world order presents both challenges and opportunities for Russia and China. As traditional power structures undergo transformation, Moscow and Beijing seek to assert their influence on the global stage. However, diverging visions of international governance and the role of multilateral institutions complicate their partnership. Despite certain areas of convergence, such as the importance of strategic stability and upholding sovereignty, disparities remain regarding matters such as human rights, territorial disputes, and regional hegemony.

Finally, it is important to consider the human aspect of bilateral relations in the analysis. People-to-people ties, cultural exchanges, and educational cooperation serve as the foundation for mutual understanding and trust.

Efforts to promote cross-border interaction, facilitate visa-free travel, and enhance cultural exchanges contribute to the resilience of Russian-Chinese relations. By nurturing grassroots connections, Putin and Xi lay the groundwork for enduring cooperation and mutual prosperity.

Conclusions and Recommendations

To sum up, the meeting between Putin and Xi Jinping not only provides a chance to reaffirm the existing strategic partnership between Russia and China, but also offers an opportunity to further strengthen their alliance.

Although it is important to manage expectations and consider Moscow and Beijing as temporary partners and future opponents, the personal relationship between leaders plays a crucial role in maintaining stability amidst the growing volatility of the world.

For further information, reports, and risk assessment about Russia-China’s relations, contact us at info@specialeurasia.com.