Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 39 Issue 3
Authors: Christian Tratzi

Understanding the impact that jihadist propaganda and violent attacks have on regional dynamics is fundamental to assess the geopolitical risk that a target area might face. The primary aim of this report is to gather Islamic State West Africa Wilayah (ISWAP)’s statements, which are dispersed across various media channels, in order to acquire insights into the group’s rhetoric and propaganda techniques.

As SpecialEurasia reported last week, despite the death of the ISWAP leader, the group’s operational capabilities remain undiminished, clear in the heightened terrorist activity and propaganda.

 This underscores the necessity for a nuanced and intelligence-driven approach to address the escalating security risks in the region.

The surge in terrorist incidents following Shuwa’s elimination highlights the need for a focused threat assessment and predictive analysis, relying on advanced analytics and real-time data to identify patterns and anticipate potential targets.

Countering ISWAP’s reliance on propaganda requires strategic efforts both within and outside Africa. Security and intelligence forces must actively engage in counter-messaging to disrupt the dissemination of radical ideologies, leveraging psychological operations and media strategies to erode the group’s influence over susceptible individuals.

Jihadist Propaganda and Strategic Communication:
Background Information

Jihadist propaganda, a methodical dissemination orchestrated by extremist groups, serves as a strategic tool to advance ideologies, recruit adherents, and instigate violence. Strategic communication, a linchpin within this paradigm, utilises diverse channels, including social platforms, videos, and online periodicals, to reach a global audience.

The content manipulates Islamic principles, distorting religious texts to rationalise acts of violence and frame them within a perceived holy war or jihad, strategically resonating with marginalised individuals who find purpose and belonging within the extremist ideology.

By using sophisticated tactics, jihadist entities make use of social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook, along with high-quality videos and online publications, to distribute propaganda.

These mediums glorify violence and martyrdom, acting as potent sources of inspiration for potential recruits. The global impact of jihadist propaganda on security is significant, contributing to the radicalisation of individuals and posing challenges for authorities in monitoring and countering these propagandist messages effectively.

The profound ramifications of jihadist propaganda on global security extend to its instrumental role in the radicalisation of individuals worldwide, prompting acts of terrorism aligned with extremist ideologies. Using social media and online platforms further complicates counteractive efforts, making it challenging for authorities to monitor and respond effectively to these propagandist messages.

ISWAP Propaganda in January 2024

The information presented in this table includes statements from ISWAP that were published in January 2024. These statements were collected from publicly available information (PAI) that is accessible on the Dark Web.

ISWAP TOTAL ATTACKS: 54
43 Nigerian Army and affiliated Militias;
8 Christians;
2 Cameroon Army;
1 Not Specified, Civilians.

Conclusion

The insights into ISWAP’s communication and propaganda efforts reveal the group’s adept use of media to disseminate its messages and portray what the militants perceive as strategic victories.

Religion serves as a prominent tool in their propaganda, emphasising Allah’s purported support and framing the group’s actions as aligned with the righteous ‘path of Allah.’ This strategic use of religious discourse contributes to shaping a narrative that validates the group’s objectives and actions in the eyes of its followers.

Moreover, a discernible correlation emerges when examining the group’s increased activities in January 2024.

These escalated actions appear to be both a retaliatory response to the killing of the former leader, Ba’ha Shuwa, and a calculated necessity to assert ISWAP’s continued potency despite the leadership change.

By juxtaposing their propaganda with heightened violent attacks, ISWAP seeks to convey resilience, maintaining its operational strength even in the face of significant leadership disruptions.

This dual strategy underscores the importance of understanding both the media-centric narrative and the tangible actions of the group for a comprehensive analysis of ISWAP’s motivations and capabilities.

For those with an interest in acquiring comprehensive insights into the geopolitical dynamics of Western Africa and the terrorist threat coming from ISWAP, we encourage you to reach out to SpecialEurasia by emailing info@specialeurasia.com. We are ready to assist you in evaluating the possibility of acquiring a carefully crafted and customised report to meet your intelligence requirements.