Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 47 Issue 2
SpecialEurasia OSINT Unit
Executive Summary
This report analyses at the situation one year after the Hamas attacks on Israel, which occurred on October 7th, 2023. The report highlights the continuous risks in the area, such as the role of Hezbollah, Iran’s engagement, and the emergence of terrorist organisations like the Islamic State.
The ongoing tensions raise concerns about future escalations, with potential outcomes varying from diplomatic resolutions to large-scale warfare.
Based on public sources and earlier reports from SpecialEurasia, it covers the main events, highlighting Israel’s military actions, intelligence operations, and the wider effects on the Middle East.
Hamas-Israel Conflict and Middle East Geopolitics:
Background Information
On October 7th, 2023, Hamas launched a surprise attack against Israel, exposing significant gaps in Tel Aviv’s defence and intelligence systems. The attack resulted in the abduction of over 200 hostages and over 1,100 Israeli casualties. Consequently, Tel Aviv started a military operation in the Gaza Strip to rescue the hostages and dismantle Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).
The toll on human lives because of the conflict in the past year has been significant. The Israeli military’s airstrikes and ground operations in Gaza have caused over 41,000 fatalities and close to 100,000 injuries. Even though Israel has achieved significant military victories, such as the elimination of influential Hamas leaders like Ismail Haniyeh, the situation remains unstable.
The fighting has also spread beyond Gaza. Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, launched attacks on Israeli positions to undermine Israel’s military operations. In retaliation, Israeli forces killed Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in late September 2024, triggering an escalation in the conflict.
In 2024, Iran has also participated in the regional military escalation by attacking Israeli targets twice. The first strike in April 2024 was in retaliation for Israel’s bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, and the second in October 2024 occurred after the deaths of Nasrallah and Haniyeh. While Israel’s missile defence systems intercepted most of the attacks, Iran’s actions show its readiness to escalate its role, increasing the risk of a wider conflict in the region.
Geopolitical and Risk Scenarios
Israeli Military and Intelligence Operations
Israel’s military, with its advanced technology and well-trained personnel, has consistently showed superiority over its enemies. Over the past year, Israel has neutralised key figures in Hamas and Hezbollah, including Haniyeh and Nasrallah, as predicted in our earlier SWOT analysis.
Despite these successes, failing to rescue all hostages has led to public unrest within Israel. Internationally, criticism of Israel has grown, particularly because of the high number of Palestinian civilian casualties, although Western governments, notably the United States, continue to support Tel Aviv.
Regional Implications and Hezbollah’s Role
Israeli strikes in Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah positions, have intensified. Despite Nasrallah’s death, Hezbollah’s determination remains strong, and the group continues its fight against Israel. Tehran’s ongoing provision of logistical and military support is instrumental in Iran’s backing of Hezbollah.
The recent Iranian strikes on Israel imply Tehran is ready to confront Tel Aviv more directly, although the primary aim is to continue supporting its proxies rather than engaging in open conflict.
Iran-Israel Conflict and Broader Regional Risks
A direct conflict between Iran and Israel remains a significant risk. Israeli strikes on Iranian assets, followed by Tehran’s retaliations, point towards a dangerous trend of escalation.
The situation has the potential to quickly escalate into a large-scale war, leading to instability in the entire region, impacting global oil markets, and possibly involving other regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Terrorist Groups
The ongoing conflict has provided a fertile ground for terrorist groups, especially the Islamic State, to expand their influence. Over the last year, Islamic State has increased its propaganda efforts, calling for attacks on Israel and Western targets. This raises the likelihood of increased terrorist activity not only in the Middle East but also in Europe and the US.
Future Risk Scenarios
- The Military Escalation Led to a Regional War. Israel could respond to Iran’s actions with a massive military campaign targeting critical Iranian sites. As a result, other state and non-state actors would become involved, leading to severe global consequences, including substantial casualties and market disruptions.
- Prolonged Proxy Conflict: Tel Aviv and Tehran may choose to avoid direct confrontation, continuing to support their proxies instead. This situation would cause a prolonged, low-level conflict that primarily affects Palestine and Lebanon, leading to sporadic escalations and ongoing instability in the region.
- Diplomatic De-escalation. There is the possibility that regional and international actors could step in to broker a ceasefire. While this would reduce immediate tensions, it would not resolve the underlying issues, meaning that future conflicts remain.
- Increased Terrorist Activities. The conflict could lead to a rise in terrorist attacks, particularly by groups like the Islamic State, both in the Middle East and internationally, worsening an already fragile security environment.
To schedule a consultation for more reports and risk assessments on the Middle East, contact SpecialEurasia at info@specialeurasia.com.
