Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 46 Issue 8
Authors: Silvia Boltuc and Giuliano Bifolchi

Executive Summary

On the evening of September 27^th, 2024, Israeli airstrike killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing Israel-Hezbollah conflict and highlighting the effectiveness of Israeli intelligence operations.

Nasrallah’s death has resulted in a temporary leadership void within Hezbollah, raising strategic concerns not only in Lebanon but also across the broader region, particularly in relation to potential retaliatory actions from Iran and its allied militias.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has characterised the strikes as a notable success; however, Israel’s actions, particularly in Gaza, continue to provoke substantial controversy.

Concurrently, geopolitical risks in the region have intensified, with Iranian proxies, including the Houthis and Iraqi militias, issuing renewed threats against Israel and its allies.

Background Information

• On Friday, September 27^th, 2024, Israel has launched a significant air campaign targeting Hezbollah’s stronghold in southern Beirut, specifically the Haret Hreik neighbourhood. The strikes have caused significant destruction, including the collapse of buildings and the displacement of thousands. Initial reports indicated at least six fatalities and 91 injuries, with expected increases in casualties. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) claimed the strikes targeted Hezbollah’s headquarters and assert the death of leader Hassan Nasrallah, initially unverified by Hezbollah. The IDF has mobilised reserve battalions in response to the escalating conflict, which follows Prime Minister Netanyahu’s commitment to sustained military action against Hezbollah. Tensions have also flared beyond Lebanon, exemplified by a missile fired from Lebanon landing in central Israel without causing damage.
• On Saturday, September 28^th, 2024, Hezbollah has confirmed the death of its leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. The group vowed to continue fighting Israel, framing its actions as support for Gaza and the Palestinian cause. Hezbollah’s al-Manar TV began airing Koranic verses in mourning, highlighting the gravity of the loss.
• Following Nasrallah’s death, both Iran and Iraq have called for support for Hezbollah in its conflict with Israel. In a speech, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei encouraged Muslims to stand behind Hezbollah, criticising Israel as an “occupying force,” without explicitly stating how Iran would respond militarily. Iran’s parliamentary committee on national security has called for a powerful reaction to Israeli actions. Iraq’s Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, declared a three-day mourning period, reflecting alignment with Hezbollah, especially among Iranian-backed factions. Hezbollah reiterated its commitment to its “holy war” for Palestine and Lebanon, amid ongoing hostilities since the Hamas attack on October 7^th, 2024. Hamas expressed condolences, stating that leadership assassinations would only strengthen resistance against Israel.
• Statement from President Joe Biden on the Death of Hassan Nasrallah. U.S. President Joe Biden described Nasrallah’s death as a significant retaliation against Hezbollah’s terrorism, which has claimed numerous lives among Americans, Israelis, and Lebanese. He reaffirmed U.S. support for Israel’s self-defence against Hezbollah and Iranian-affiliated groups. The United States is reinforcing its military presence while pursuing diplomatic efforts for de-escalation, concentrating on ceasefires and regional stability.
• Houthi started a missile attack against Israel. Yemen’s Houthi movement claimed responsibility for a missile targeting Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport, coinciding with Prime Minister Netanyahu’s return from Washington. The Houthis utilised a “Palestine 2” missile, pledging to escalate operations in solidarity with Gaza and Lebanon, particularly following recent Israeli strikes.
• Russia condemned the killing of Palestinians with U.S. weapons. Russia has condemned Israel’s use of U.S. weaponry against Palestinians, demanded an end to what it calls “mass collective punishment.” Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, addressing the UN General Assembly, criticised Israeli military actions resulting in civilian casualties and called for urgent humanitarian aid to restore Palestinian infrastructure. He underlined the need for a viable Palestinian state based on 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital. Lavrov also denounced Nasrallah’s assassination and complained about rising political assassinations, calling for investigations into attacks on communications. He suggested potential U.S. complicity in the current conflict and emphasised the need for closer scrutiny.

Who Was Nasrallah?

Hassan Nasrallah was born on August 31^st, 1960 in Bourj Hammoud, a suburb of Beirut, into a Shia family as the eldest of nine children. Nasrallah attended a Shia seminary in Baalbek and briefly affiliated with the Amal Movement during the Lebanese Civil War, which began in 1975.

In 1982, following Israel’s invasion of Lebanon, he joined Hezbollah. His leadership qualities and military acumen quickly advanced him within the organisation. Nasrallah became the secretary-general at the age of 32, succeeding Abbas al-Musawi after his assassination in 1992. Under his leadership, Hezbollah developed into a formidable political and military entity, closely allied with Iran. He played a critical role in the 2000 Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and the subsequent 2006 Lebanon War.

Nasrallah was a polarising figure; while supporters hailed him as a symbol of resistance against Israel, critics accused him of leading Lebanon into costly conflicts. His involvement in the Syrian Civil War on behalf of Bashar al-Assad further exacerbated sectarian divisions within the region.

His death in an Israeli airstrike on 27 September 2024 marks a significant moment for Hezbollah and may alter Lebanon’s political landscape. Although the airstrike has temporarily created a leadership vacuum within Hezbollah., the group’s resilience is expected to remain intact.

The Shura Council is likely to convene to appoint a new leader, with Hashem Safieddine, a senior member, viewed as a potential successor. Following Nasrallah’s killing, Hezbollah responded by firing rockets into northern Israel.

Israel perceives Nasrallah’s death as a substantial victory and may attempt to exploit Hezbollah’s current vulnerabilities. Nevertheless, thanks to its military and political infrastructure, the group will continue to be a formidable presence, despite facing internal challenges and external pressures.

Scenario Analysis

1. Israeli Intelligence Capabilities. The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, along with other senior figures from Hezbollah and Hamas, underscores the precision and operational range of Israeli intelligence and military forces. The capability to target and eliminate such leaders in Lebanon and Iran demonstrates Tel Aviv’s strategic depth and its collaborations with allies. These targeted killings aim to disrupt the leadership structures of Hezbollah and Hamas, diminishing their operational effectiveness in the immediate term. The likelihood of retaliation remains substantial, as both groups possess significant military resources and powerful support bases within their communities.
2. Netanyahu’s Leadership and Domestic Implications. Netanyahu has framed Nasrallah’s assassination as a significant victory, asserting that it enhances Israel’s security. This assertion occurs amid growing scrutiny over Israel’s management of the war in Gaza, where civilian casualties are alarmingly high. While an aggressive approach towards Hezbollah and Hamas might rally domestic support for Netanyahu, it risks escalating regional tensions and provoking further retaliatory actions from both Hezbollah and Iranian-aligned factions. Domestically, this situation may either consolidate Netanyahu’s political standing or deepen societal divisions, particularly among those critical of the humanitarian impact in Gaza.
3. Iran’s Response and Strategic Calculations. Nasrallah’s assassination poses a dilemma for Iran, a key supporter of Hezbollah and various proxy groups throughout the Middle East. Tehran must navigate a complex situation: it needs to respond to Israeli actions to preserve its influence and credibility, while simultaneously avoiding direct military confrontation with Israel and its Western allies. It is probable that Tehran will continue supporting Hezbollah and other proxy groups through unconventional warfare tactics, while avoiding direct confrontation with Israel. Increased military activities from Iranian-affiliated militias in Iraq and Yemen may indicate a potential for broader regional escalation.
4. Geopolitical and Military Escalation Risks. The killing of Nasrallah has intensified geopolitical tensions in the region, particularly regarding the conflicts involving Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran-aligned groups such as the Houthis. Attacks on Israeli strategic assets by militias from Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon reflect the expanding nature of the conflict. Recent threats from Iraqi militias targeting UAE and Israeli interests further illustrate the war’s regional ramifications. Should Iran’s proxies amplify their assaults, Israel may find itself drawn into a wider regional conflict, potentially involving other Middle Eastern nations and Western powers, including the United States and NATO allies.

*Last update: Saturday, September 28^th, 2024 – 08.00 pm CET

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